普惠制待遇取消与出口贸易——基于中国出口数据的影响评估及对策研究

Abolition of Generalized System of Preferences Treatment and Export Trade:Impact Assessment and Countermeasures Based on China’s Export Data

中国海关总署发布公告不再向32个发达国家签发普惠制原产地证书。停止普惠制原产地证书的签发是否意味着普惠制待遇的取消?普惠制待遇取消对中国出口贸易带来的负面影响如何?文章梳理中国享有及失去普惠制待遇发展历程,还原事件真实始末,通过关税损失测算、出口趋势分析和双重差分检验评估出普惠制待遇取消对中国出口贸易造成的损失程度。结果表明,普惠制待遇取消对中国出口贸易造成的冲击时间短、损失小,对中国出口贸易全局不构成实质影响。中国产品出口已经脱离依靠关税优惠带来价格优势争取市场的阶段,要抓住全球供应链重构的关键时期,打造出独特而强劲的外贸竞争力,助力中国对外贸易行稳致远。

The General Administration of Customs of China announced that it would no longer issue the certificates of origin of generalized system of preferences(GSP)to 32 developed countries.Does stopping the issuance of GSP certificates of origin mean the abolition of GSP treatment?What is the negative impact of the abolition of GSP treatment on China’s export trade?This paper combs the development process of China’s enjoyment and loss of GSP treatment,restores the true history of the event and evaluates the degree of loss caused by the abolition of GSP treatment to China’s export trade through tariff loss measurement,export trend analysis and DID test.The results show that the abolition of GSP treatment has a short-time impact on China’s export trade with little loss,and has no substantive impact on the overall situation of China’s export trade.The export of China’s products has moved away from the stage of striving for the market by relying on price advantages brought by tariff preferences.It is necessary to seize the key period of global supply chain reconstruction and create the unique and strong foreign trade competitiveness to make China’s foreign trade steady and far-reaching.