社会—生态耦合视角下城市旅游系统韧性时空演化及其影响因素

The spatio-temporal evolution of urban tourism system resilience and its influencing factors from the perspective of social-ecological coupling

遵循SES与AC理论,基于社会—生态耦合视角从生态子系统、社会子系统及两者耦合协调度三维度构建城市旅游系统韧性评价指标体系,综合运用多种空间分析方法与回归模型,对中国277个地级城市2002—2019年旅游系统韧性的时空动态演化规律及影响因素进行探究。结果表明:(1)城市旅游系统韧性不断改善,但年度均值偏低(低于0.15),空间等级结构呈“金字塔型”,少数高值区呈点状分布在京津冀、长三角及成渝地区,多数低值区零散分布于中部、东北和西北地区。(2)社会与生态子系统耦合协调度在城市旅游系统韧性改善中起支撑作用,生态韧性起制约作用。(3)城市旅游系统韧性存在转移惰性和路径锁定特征,级别跃迁较困难且跃迁易受邻域溢出作用影响。(4)城市旅游系统韧性时空演化是多种因素共同作用的结果,其中社会与生态环境因子间交互作用影响力最强,生态因素影响力最弱。

Based on Social Ecosystem Theory(SET)and Adaptive Cycle(AC)Theory,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of urban tourism system resilience from three dimensions,namely the ecological subsystem,the social subsystem,and their combination.Furthermore,this paper used various spatial analysis methods and regression models to extensively explore the dynamic spatio-temporal evolution laws and influencing factors of urban tourism system resilience in 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2002 to 2019.The results showed that:(1)Although the resilience of the urban tourism system continued to improve,the annual average value was low(less than 0.15)with a"pyramidal"spatial hierarchy,while a few high-value areas were distributed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Changjiang River Delta,and Chengdu-Chongqing regions.Most low-value areas were scattered in the central,northeast,and northwest regions of China.(2)The coupling coordination degree of social and ecological subsystems played a supporting role in improving the urban tourism system resilience,while ecological resilience played a restrictive role.(3)The urban tourism system resilience displayed transfer inertia,while path locking and level transition were difficult since it was easily affected by neighborhood spillovers.(4)The spatio-temporal evolution of urban tourism system resilience resulted from a combination of factors,among which the interaction of social and ecological environmental factors had the strongest influence,while the influence of ecological factors was the weakest.