中国土地利用碳排放变化及协调分区

Changes in Land Use Carbon Emissions and Coordinated Zoning in China

土地利用变化所产生的碳排放已成为地区碳排放的主要来源之一,为了探究其变化以全国30个省市为研究对象,基于2001~2019年MODIS的MCD12Q-LUCC数据,通过碳排放系数法,聚类与异常值分析法,从碳排放经济贡献系数、碳生态承载系数及二者的耦合协调关系等角度探讨了近19年间全国各省土地利用碳排放的空间特征并进行了分区研究.结果表明:(1)2000~2019年全国土地利用碳排放量增长显著,但在2011年后碳排放量增长率变得平缓,而碳汇量的增长则相对缓慢,二者间的差距仍较大.(2)聚类与异常值分析显示研究期内全国各省市土地利用碳排放高值集聚中心由广东、江苏等省份转移到河北、山西、内蒙古等省份且集聚状态越来越明显.(3)全国各省市碳排放经济贡献系数呈现南高北低的空间特征,生态承载系数则呈现出由西高东低逐渐发展为中高东低,北部次之的特征,两者的耦合协调度呈现出下降的趋势.(4)本文基于碳排放经济贡献和碳生态承载,将各省划分为低碳保持区、经济发展区、碳汇发展区和综合优化区这4类,并提出各自的发展建议,争取实现碳中和与低碳可持续发展.

Carbon emissions from land use changes have become one of the main sources of regional carbon emissions.In order to explore its changes,based on the MCD12Q-LUCC data of MODIS from 2001 to 2019 using the carbon emission coefficient method,clustering,and outlier analysis method,the spatial characteristics of land use carbon emissions in various provinces in China in the past 19 years were discussed from the perspectives of carbon emission economy contributive coefficient,carbon ecological support coefficient,and their coupling and coordination relationship.The results showed that:(1)from 2000 to 2019,the national land use carbon emissions increased significantly;however,after 2011,the growth rate of carbon emissions became flat,whereas the growth of carbon sinks was relatively slow,and the gap between the two was still large.(2)Clustering and outlier analysis showed that during the study period,the high-value agglomeration centers of land use carbon emissions in various provinces and cities across the country shifted from Guangdong,Jiangsu,and other provinces to Hebei,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,and other provinces,and the agglomeration status became increasingly obvious.(3)The economy contributive coefficient of carbon emissions in all provinces and cities across the country had the spatial characteristics of being high in the south and low in the north,and the ecological support coefficient gradually developed from high in the west to low in the east,followed by that in the north,and the coupling coordination between the two showed a downward trend.(4)Based on the economy contributive of carbon emissions and carbon ecological support,this study divided the provinces into four categories:low-carbon maintenance area,economic development area,carbon sink development area,and comprehensive optimization area.We also put forward our own development suggestions,striving to achieve carbon neutrality and low-carbon sustainable development.