跨越式发展:数字时代中国服务贸易发展战略与政策

Leapfrog Development:Development Strategy and Policy of China's Trade in Service in the Digital Era

以5G、人工智能、大数据、3D打印、物联网、区块链为代表的第四次工业革命推动经济指数级增长,引发当代国际经贸规则重构、产业链供应链重组、国际商业模式重建、国际经贸格局重塑。为把握未来国际贸易服务化、数字化、绿色化的发展大势,抓住数字时代服务可贸易化新机遇,本文提出“十四五”时期中国实行服务贸易跨越式发展战略的必要性、紧迫性与可行性,以及通过创新发展、开放发展、融合协同发展、绿色发展、合作发展和安全发展,实现战略目标的政策举措。

In order to give full play to the promoting effect of trade on economic growth,during the period of reform and opening up,according to the characteristics of economic globalization and economic development goals in different periods,China has put forward such trade development strategies as winning by quality,market diversification,trade through science and technology,and free trade zones.These strategies have played an important role in optimizing China's export structure,expanding the international market,accelerating the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,and promoting China to become the world's largest trader of goods and the world's second largest economy.The Fourth Industrial Revolution,represented by 5G,artificial intelligence,big data,3D printing,Internet of Things and blockchain technologies,has promoted exponential economic growth,triggered the rewriting of contemporary international economic and trade rules,the reorganization of industrial chain and supply chain,the reconstruction of international business models and the reshaping of international economic and trade patterns.In the new landscape of global digital economy and international trade competition,in the changing situation of international trade in services,digitalization and greening,in 2021,China's trade in services accounted for 4.4%of GDP,and the degree of service tradability was lower than the world average(11.9%)and Germany(18.1%),another manufacturing giant.Trade in services accounted for 12%of China's total foreign trade,again lower than the world average(20.4%)and Germany(19.7%).The export of digital services accounted for 49.7%of China's service export,and the digital level of trade in services was lower than the world average(62.8%),the United States(77.1%),Japan(72.9%)and Germany(64.21%).WTO predicts that by 2040,according to the statistics of added value,the proportion of trade in services in global trade will jump to 50%,which poses a new challenge to China's status as the world's largest trader in goods.The contemporary international division of labor dominated by global value chains has promoted international organizations such as the United Nations,WTO and OECD to re⁃recognize the role of services in the creation of added value of global value chains,the transformation and upgrading of economic structure and sustainable development.Following the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,China embarked on a new journey to modernization.In order to accelerate improvement in its trade quality,China's trade strategy should be adjusted in time according to the new characteristics of global economic digitalization and the new goal of high⁃quality development.Based on the understanding of national strategy,opportunity and competition,this paper first puts forward the new strategy of China's trade development in the digital era⁃the leap⁃forward development for strategy in trade in services,and establishes the strategic objectives and policy guidance.Policies and measures to achieve strategic objectives should fully implement the new development philosophy.To promote innovation⁃driven development we should focus on reshaping the digital supply chain,promoting enterprises to accelerate industrial digital transformation,and strengthening the government's digital governance and China's international cooperation in the digital economy.To facilitate open development we should focus on opening up the digital market,eliminating barriers to trade in services,promoting institutional innovation for digital transformation,and establishing a new system for a higher⁃level open economy.By coordinated development we mean promoting the development of trade integration through policy coordination,industrial integration and trade coordination.To promote green development we should promote green development and foster new forms of trade in services.To promote international cooperation,we should establish new platforms and mechanisms,expand cooperation areas,upgrade cooperation levels and introduce new cooperation models,so as to enhance the effectiveness of international cooperation with opening up at a higher level.To ensure security,we should strengthen cybersecurity and supply chain security,and enhance the resilience of trade development.