可持续就业、普惠金融与共同富裕——基于门槛效应的模型分析

Sustainable employment,financial inclusion and shared prosperity:a model analysis based on threshold effects

基于我国31个省市地区2011—2020年的面板数据,以普惠金融作为门槛变量,构建面板门槛模型,研究了可持续就业对共同富裕的影响。研究结果显示:可持续就业对共同富裕具有显著正向影响,且存在双重门槛效应。当普惠金融发展水平小于第一个门槛值时,可持续就业对共同富裕的影响最大;普惠金融发展水平介于第一个门槛值和第二个门槛值之间时,可持续就业对共同富裕的影响最小。即一定程度的普惠金融发展可以扩展共同富裕实现路径的多元化,减弱对可持续就业实现共同富裕这一路径的依赖。但无论普惠金融的发展水平如何,可持续就业对共同富裕均有显著的促进作用,是实现共同富裕的有效路径。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2011 to 2020,a panel threshold model was constructed using financial inclusion as a threshold variable to study the impact of sustainable employment on shared prosperity.The findings show that sustainable employment has a significant positive impact on shared prosperity and there is a double threshold effect.When the level of inclusive financial development is less than the first threshold,the impact of sustainable employment on shared prosperity is the largest;when the level of inclusive financial development is between the first and second thresholds,the impact of sustainable employment on shared prosperity is the smallest.In other words,a certain level of financial inclusion can expand the diversification of the path to shared prosperity and reduce the reliance on sustainable employment as a path to shared prosperity.However,regardless of the level of financial inclusion development,sustainable employment has a significant contribution to shared prosperity and is an effective pathway to shared prosperity.