RCEP能否抵消中美贸易战的影响:兼论保障中国经济安全

Can RCEP Offset The Impact of The China-US Trade War:Reconsideration of China’s Economy Security

通过构建多国多部门的结构模型,全面量化分析RCEP对中美贸易战的抵消作用。研究结果显示:(1)RCEP可以部分抵消中美贸易战,对中国产出的负面冲击;其中,农业、食品业、纺织业和林业等部门受益更大。(2)无论是出口还是进口,RCEP都可以有效抵消中美贸易战对中国外贸的负面冲击;且借助RCEP中的第三国,中美之间可以再次发生贸易联系,降低中美脱钩的风险。(3)RCEP还可以缓解中美贸易战对中国真实工资水平的负面影响。在中美贸易战长期化扩大化的国际背景下,积极参与自由贸易区,反对贸易保护主义,是在一个更加不稳定不确定的世界中保障中国经济安全的重要法宝。

By constructing a multi-country and multi-sectoral structure model,this paper quantitatively analyzes the offsetting effect of RCEP on the China-US trade war.The main findings are:(1)RCEP can partially offset the negative impact of the China-US trade war on China’s output;among all sectors,the agriculture,food,textile and wooden sectors have benefited more.(2)Regardless of whether it is export or import,RCEP can effectively offset the negative impact of the China-US trade war on China's foreign trade;and with the help of a third country in RCEP,trade ties between China and the United States can again occur,reducing the risk of China-US decoupling.(3)RCEP can also alleviate the negative impact of the China-US trade war on China's real wages.Against the backdrop of the China-US trade war,actively participating in free trade zones and opposing trade protectionism is an important weapon for China to ensure economy security in a more unstable and uncertain world.