农村脱贫家庭返贫风险测度及预警机制构建研究——基于生计脆弱性的分析框架

Research on the risk measurement and early warning mechanism construction of rural poverty alleviation families-An analytical framework based on livelihood vulnerability

在阐释生计脆弱性与脱贫户返贫风险生成机理的基础上,构建农村脱贫家庭返贫风险的测度指标体系并测算其返贫风险程度。实证结果表明:全国农村脱贫家庭的返贫风险较低,西部地区农村脱贫家庭的返贫风险较高,且同时面临外源风险和内源能力较弱双重困境;风险适应能力强弱是引致返贫风险的主要指标,五项资本贡献率不尽相同,其中金融资本、人力资本是增强风险适应能力的主要贡献因子。在此基础上,可从信息收集管理系统、大数据平台判断预警级别、预警等级情况核查、预警措施介入、预警措施评估五个方面构建返贫风险预警机制。可聚焦易返贫地区,预防外源返贫风险,提升农村脱贫家庭抗风险能力,完善落实防止返贫预警帮扶机制。

On the basis of explaining the mechanism of livelihood vulnerability and the risk of returning to poverty of the poverty-stricken households,this paper constructs the index system for measuring the risk of returning to poverty of the rural poverty-stricken households and calculates the risk degree of returning to poverty.The empirical results show that the risk of returning to poverty of rural poverty relief families in the whole country is low,and the risk of returning to poverty of rural poverty relief families in the western region is high,and at the same time.Facing the dual dilemma of external risk and weak internal capacity;The risk adaptation ability is the main indicator leading to the risk of returning to poverty.The five capital contribution rates are different.Financial capital and human capital are the main contribution factors to enhance the risk adaptation ability.On this basis,the early warning mechanism of poverty reduction risk can be built from five aspects:information collection and management system,big data platform judgment of early warning level,early warning level verification,early warning measures intervention,and early warning measures evaluation.We can focus on areas prone to return to poverty,prevent the risk of external return to poverty,improve the anti-risk ability of rural poverty-stricken families,and improve the implementation of early warning and assistance mechanism to prevent return to poverty.