全球集成电路贸易网络结构演化及中国对外依赖分析

Analysis on Network Structure Evolution of Global Integrated Circuit Trade and China s Foreign Dependence

集成电路作为电子信息技术产业的核心,已成为全球关键核心技术竞争的焦点。本文基于全球集成电路贸易数据建立网络矩阵,借助复杂网络分析方法,刻画2000—2019年全球集成电路贸易的网络结构演化特征,并进一步揭示中国与其他国家(地区)的相互依赖关系。研究发现:①20年间全球集成电路贸易网络的整体规模逐渐扩大,但受中美贸易摩擦的影响,近年来的网络发展态势受阻;②全球集成电路贸易网络“核心—边缘”结构特征显著,并呈现以美国为主导的“单核”向以中韩为核心的“双核”结构转变。③全球集成电路贸易格局“东升西降”特征显著,贸易网络空间结构则呈现出以北美为核心的“洲际双拱”格局演变为以东亚—东南亚为核心的“洲内联系为主,洲际互动为辅”的多级格局。④研究期内中国与发达国家在保持高额贸易往来的同时却维持了较低的贸易紧密度,反而“一带一路”沿线和非洲国家与中国的贸易依赖程度不断加深。⑤中国与世界各国集成电路贸易依赖的非对称性显著,中国对发达国家呈现出单向依赖特征。

As the core of the electronic information technology industry,integrated circuits have become the focus of global competition for core and key technologies.Based on the data of global integrated circuit trade in UN Comtrade Database,this paper establishes a network matrix,and with the help of social network analysis method,portrays the evolution of global integrated circuit trade network structure,and further reveals the interdependence between China and other countries(regions)from 2000 to 2019.The results show the followings.①Over the past 20 years,the global integrated circuit trade network has shown an overall expansion trend,but its development has been blocked in recent years by the impact of trade frictions between the US and China.②The global integrated circuit trade network had a significant core-periphery structure characteristic,and the structure changed from“single core”to“dual core”.③The global integrated circuit trade pattern“rising in the east and falling in the west”featured significantly.As for the spatial distribution of the global integrated circuit trade network,it mainly included the trade links between the continents with North America as the core in 2000.And in 2019,the pattern changed to intra continental trade links with East-Southeast Asia.④While maintaining huge trade links with developed countries,China had owned a low degree of trade intensity index.Besides,countries or regions along the“Belt and Road”and Africa were increasing trade dependence with China.⑤The asymmetry of global integrated circuit trade dependence between China and other countries in the world was significant,and China was heavily dependent on developed countries.