哈尔滨机场中等强度降水案例分析及短时临近预报探究

Case Analysis of Moderate Intensity Precipitation and Research on Nowcasting at Harbin Airport

基于常规探测资料、风廓线雷达资料、自动观测系统数据、人工观测数据,对2021年4月12日及30日短时中雪及短时中雨天气的天气形势、形成机理及短时临近预报方法进行了分析研究,旨在探究风廓线雷达等值线图的预报价值。结果表明:风廓线雷达各类产品可至少提前30 min识别系统移动及降水强度变化趋势;垂直风v与折射率结构C_(n)^(2)常数可分别用来预报降水和降雪的持续时间。近地面v的范围为5.3~6.5 m·s^(-1)、C_(n)^(2)范围为−123~−103 dB,C_(n)^(2)范围为−118~−111 dB时,可分别作为中雨及中雪天气的短临预报参考指标。

Based on conventional detection data,wind profile radar data,automatic observation system data and manual observation data,the synoptic situation,formation mechanism and nowcasting for moderate snow and rain on April 12 and 30 in 2021 are analyzed to explore the forecast value of the wind profile radar contour map.The results show that the products of the wind profiler radar can identify the system movement and the change trend of precipitation intensity at least 30 minutes in advance;the vertical velocity v and the refractive index structure C_(n)^(2)constant can be used to predict the duration of rainfall and snowfall respectively.When the near-ground v range is 5.3 to 6.5 m·s^(-1),C_(n)^(2)range is−123 to−103 dB or C_(n)^(2)range is−118 to−111 dB,it can be used as a reference index for nowcasting of moderate rain and snow respectively.