基于多源数据的城市用地强度对碳排放的影响研究--以青岛市为例

Study on the impact of urban land intensity on carbon emissions based on multi-source data:a case study of Qingdao City

“双碳”目标背景下,为探索县域城市用地强度变化下的碳排放响应及其内在关系,基于POI、Landsat与统计数据的多源数据,采用三维空间曲面插值、核密度估计(KDE)、时空地理加权回归(GTWR)等研究方法,探索2010年、2013年和2017年城市用地强度对碳排放的影响。结果表明:①青岛市碳排放指数三维曲面从“山峰状”转为“鞍部状”,三类用地强度的时空分布呈现多中心分布;②不同年份内碳排放指数对不同用地强度变化的敏感程度不同;③不同城镇化率背景下,用地强度驱动的碳排放变动存在一定规律:随城镇化率的提升,碳排放主导驱动要素由居住用地向工业用地转变。研究结论:为有效降低城市用地影响下的碳排放,应考虑影响作用的空间异质性与不同城镇化水平的城市差异。

In the background of the“dual carbon”goal,in order to explore the carbon emission response and its internal relationship with the change of urban land use intensity at county level,and based on the multi-source data of POI,Landsat and statistical data,research methods such as three-dimensional spatial surface interpolation,Kernel Density Estimation(KDE),Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)were used to explore the impact of urban land use intensity on carbon emissions in 2010,2013 and 2017.The results show that:①The three-dimensional surface of Qingdao's carbon emission index changes from a“peak”to a“saddle,”and the spatial and temporal distribution of the three types of land use intensity presents a multicenter distribution;②The sensitivities of carbon emission index to the change of land use intensity are different in different years;③In the background of different urbanization rates,there is a certain rule for the change of carbon emissions driven by land use intensity:with the increase of urbanization rate,the leading driving factor of carbon emissions changes from residential land to industrial land.Research conclusions are drawn that in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions under the influence of urban land use,the spatial heterogeneity of the impact and the urban differences of different urbanization levels should be considered.