基于脱钩分析的2004-2017年京津冀城市群水足迹与经济发展的协调关系研究

Decoupling analysis of water footprint and economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2004 to 2017

京津冀地区是我国的政治文化中心,经济发达且人口密集,但目前面临着严重的水资源危机。分析水资源消耗、水资源污染与经济发展之间的脱钩关系,有利于促进水资源利用与经济协调发展。本文利用水足迹模型与方法计算京津冀城市群2004—2017年的水量足迹与水质足迹,分析其14年来的水资源利用情况。同时利用Tapio脱钩模型对水资源消耗(水量足迹)、水资源污染(水质足迹)与经济发展的协调关系进行分析与评价。结果表明:①2004—2017年,研究区水量足迹呈波动上升趋势,而人均水量足迹缓慢减少,水资源利用效率不断提高,但水资源利用结构不合理,农业生产用水占比过大;②水质足迹呈现明显的下降趋势,总体水环境得到明显改善,政府出台的水环境治理政策取得了显著成效;③水量足迹与经济发展的脱钩状态以弱脱钩为主,水资源消耗与经济发展处于初级协调状态;④水质足迹与经济发展的脱钩由弱脱钩向强脱钩状态发展,以强脱钩状态为主,逐步实现了水环境污染与经济发展的理想脱钩状态。

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the political and economic center of China,which is economically developed and densely populated but is currently facing a serious water crisis.An analysis of the decoupling relationship between water consumption,water pollution and economic development is conducive to the promotion of coordination of water use and economic development.This paper uses the water footprint model and method to calculate the water quantity footprint and water quality footprint of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2004 to 2017,with the water use over the 14 years analyzed.At the same time,the Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze and evaluate the coordination between water resources consumption(water quantity footprint)and economic growth,water resources pollution(water quality footprint)and economic growth.The results showed that:①The water quantity footprint of the study area indicates a fluctuating upward trend from 2004 to 2017,while the per capita water quantity footprint decreased slowly,and the utilization efficiency of water resources kept improving;however,the utilization structure of water resources was unreasonable,and the proportion of water used in agricultural production was too large.②The water quality footprint has shown an obvious downward trend,the overall water environment has been significantly improved,and the water environment governance policies issued by the government have achieved remarkable results.③The decoupling state of water quantity footprint and economic development was mainly weak decoupling,and the consumption of water resources and economic development was in the primary coordination state.④The decoupling of water quality footprint from economic development developed from weak decoupling to strong decoupling,with the ideal decoupling state of water environment pollution and economic development gradually realized.