2014—2018年新疆乌鲁木齐市其他感染性腹泻流行特征及ARIMA模型预测

Epidemiological characteristics and ARIMA model application for other infectious diarrhea in Urumqi, Xinjiang from 2014 to 2018

目的了解新疆乌鲁木齐市2014—2018年其他感染性腹泻流行状况, 探索ARIMA模型对其他感染性腹泻的预测应用, 为科学防治提供依据。方法收集整理"中国疾病预防控制信息系统"中2014—2018年某三甲医院其他感性腹泻流行病学资料及医院实验室检测结果数据进行描述性流行病学分析, 同时应用SPSS软件进行ARIMA模型预测。结果 2014—2018年某三甲医院其他感染性腹泻病例主要集中在6~10月(1 748例), 占全年总病例的65.89%。10岁以下儿童是其它感染性腹泻就诊的主要人群(1 699例), 占比49.26%。轮状病毒感染是导致其他感染性腹泻发生的主要原因(339例), 占所有检出病原的93.38%。ARIMA(0, 1, 2)(0, 1, 1)12为最优模型, 验证2018年乌鲁木齐市1~12月发病数平均相对误差20%, 实际值均在预测值95%可信区间内。结论应重点加强对乌鲁木齐10岁以下儿童及家长针对其他感染性腹泻预防的健康教育工作, 重点应关注轮状病毒腹泻, 做好10岁以下儿童轮状病毒疫苗的推广和接种工作。ARIMA(0, 1, 2)(0, 1, 1)12对于其他感染性腹泻发病情况预测具有一定价值。

Objective To understand the prevalence of other infectious diarrhea in Urumqi,Xinjiang from 2014 to 2018,to explore application of ARIMA model to predict other infectious diarrhea,and to provide a basis for scientific prevention and treatment.Methods The epidemiological data of other perceptual diarrhea in a tertiary hospital from 2014 to 2018 and the data of laboratory test result in the"China Disease Prevention and Control Information System"were collected and sorted for descriptive epidemiological analysis,and SPSS software was used to predict the ARIMA model.Results Other infectious diarrhea cases in a tertiary hospital from 2014 to 2018 were mainly concentrated in June to October(1748 cases),accounting for 65.89%of the total cases in the whole year.Children under 10 years of age were the main population for other infectious diarrhea(1699 cases),accounting for 49.26%.Rotavirus infection was the main cause of other infectious diarrhea(339 cases),accounting for 93.38%of all detected pathogens.ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 was the optimal model,which verified that the average relative error of the number of cases in Urumqi from January to December in 2018 was 20%,and the actual value was within the 95%confidence interval of the predicted value.Conclusions Health education on the prevention of other infectious diarrhea should be strengthened for children under 10 years of age and their parents in Urumqi,focusing on rotavirus diarrhea,and the promotion and vaccination of rotavirus vaccine for children under 10 years old should be done well.ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 has certain value in predicting the incidence of other infectious diarrhea.