双循环视角下贸易开放与区域劳动力市场重构

Trade Opening and Regional Labor Market Reconstruction from the Perspective of Dual Circulation

为了解双循环视角下贸易开放与区域劳动力市场重构的关系,文章基于开放的多区域空间一般均衡模型,以中国加入WTO作为贸易开放冲击准自然实验,采用三重差分法考察了贸易开放带来的国际需求冲击对不同规模城市劳动力市场工资调整和就业调整的异质性。研究发现:贸易开放带来的国际需求冲击显著促进了城市工资增长和就业增长;在面临国际需求冲击时,大城市由于较小的劳动力供给弹性表现为更多的工资调整,而小城市则因为较大的劳动力供给弹性表现为更大的就业调整。在国际需求萎缩的大环境下,小城市比大城市需更加重视融入国内大市场以降低劳动力失业风险。

In order to understand the relationship between trade opening and regional labor market reconstruction from the perspective of dual circulation, and based on the open multi-regional spatial general equilibrium model, this paper takes China’s accession into WTO as a quasi-natural experiment of trade opening shocks, and uses the difference-in-difference-in-difference estimation to investigate the heterogeneity of international demand shocks resulting from trade opening on wage and employment adjustment in labor markets of different size’s cities. The results show that the above mentioned shocks has significantly promoted urban wage and employment growth, and that facing the shocks, large cities, due to their comparatively less labor supply elasticity, tend to have larger wage and smaller employment responses than small cities do. In the context of shrinking international demand, small cities need to pay more attention to integration into domestic market than big cities do, to reduce the risks of labor unemployment.