基于贝叶斯网络的深井掘进工作面一氧化碳中毒事故风险评价

Risk assessment of carbon monoxide poisoning accidents onworking face of deep mine excavation based on Bayesian network

为识别并量化分析导致深井掘进工作面CO中毒事故的基本风险因素,构建了深井掘进工作面CO中毒事故贝叶斯网络模型并进行双向推理,结果表明:导致事故发生的先验概率为19.0%;在单因素作用下,导致事故发生的后验概率最大为27.9%;在多因素耦合作用下导致事故发生的后验概率最大为39.1%;未掌握工作面CO运移规律、施工环境温湿度过高、通风时间不合理、局部通风方案设计不合理、现场交叉施工干扰、通风设备维护管理差是影响深井掘进工作面CO中毒事故的6个基本风险因素;事故预防的重点是防止施工环境温湿度过高、通风时间不合理、局部通风方案设计不合理、现场交叉施工干扰、通风设备维护管理差这5个基本风险因素同时发生。研究成果可为我国深井施工中气体中毒事故的预防提供参考。

In order to identify and quantitatively analyze the basic risk factors causing carbon monoxide(CO)poisoning accidents on working face of deep mine excavation,a Bayesian network model for CO poisoning accident on working face of deep mine excavation was constructed and followed by performance of two-way reasoning.The results show that the prior probability of causing the accident was 19.0%.As the function of single factor,the maximum posterior probability of accident was 27.9%.The maximum posteriori probability of accident as the function of coupling factors was 39.1%.The six basic risk factors on CO poisoning accidents on working face of deep mine excavation consisted of failure to understand the law of CO migration on the working face,high temperature and humidity for the construction conditions,improper ventilation time,irrational local ventilation design,interfered by specialty-intersecting construction on site and poor maintenance and management of ventilation devices.The precautions should be concentrated on preventing such five basic risk factors as high temperature and humidity during the construction,improper ventilation time,irrational design of local ventilation,interfered by specialty-intersecting construction on site,and poor maintenance and management of ventilation device from occurrence at the same time.The results of study provide reference for the preventing gas poisoning accidents during the deep mine construction in China.