基于条件风险价值理论的综合能源系统优化调度

Optimal scheduling of integrated energy system based on conditional value-at-risk theory

针对综合能源系统调度过程难以兼顾不同能源的调度条件,导致能源调度准确性较差的问题,提出基于条件风险价值理论的综合能源系统优化调度.分析以电、热、气为主的综合能源系统结构和响应过程,探究系统的不确定性供能因素.根据条件风险价值理论建立最优调度目标函数,将能量平衡、功率限制和储电设备容量等作为约束条件,构建优化调度模型.利用粒子群迭代方法求解模型,获取粒子的速度与位置更新方程,得出最佳调度结果.结果表明,所提方法能够准确预测出能源需求量,将输出能源控制在合理范围内,降低系统运行风险,提高经济效益.

In order to solve the problem that the dispatching process of integrated energy system is unable to take the different energy dispatching conditions into account, which leads to poor dispatching accuracy, the optimal scheduling of integrated energy system based on the conditional value-at-risk theory was proposed. The structure and response process of integrated energy system with electricity, heat and gas as main components were analyzed to investigate the uncertainty of energy supply. According to the conditional value-at-risk theory, the objective function of optimal scheduling was established. The energy balance, power limit and capacity of storage equipment were selected as constraints. The particle swarm iterative method was used to solve the model, and the velocity and position updating equations of particles were obtained. The results show that the as-proposed method can accurately predict the energy demand, control the output energy within a reasonable range, reduce system operation risk and improve economic efficiency.