环境规制与制造业价值链攀升:助力还是阻力——基于“强”与“弱”波特假说的中介效应检验

Environmental Regulation and Manufacturing Value Chain Climbing:Help or Hinder——Mediating Effect Test based on Strong and Weak Porter Hypothesis

为了更精确揭示全球价值链低碳化趋势下中国制造业价值链攀升,本文以强、弱“波特假说”为视角,利用2016年WIOD发布的2000—2014年世界投入产出数据和中国制造业经验数据,从理论分析与实证研究两方面综合考察环境规制对我国制造业价值攀升的影响机制。研究发现,环境规制动态影响制造业价值链攀升,短期内环境规制产生阻碍作用,长期中将显著激励制造业价值链攀升。进一步的面板门限检验发现,仅有环境规制强度达到一定“门限值”后,才能有效促进制造业价值链攀升。在“波特假设”的传导机制检验中,环境规制既能够通过弱“波特假说”的技术创新,也能够通过强“波特假说”的生产效率增长,促进我国制造业价值链攀升。

In order to more accurately reflect the status of China’s manufacturing value chain climbing under the global value chain low-carbon trend,this paper innovatively takes the strong and weak“Porter hypothesis”as the perspective,and adopts the 2000-2014 world input-output data released by WIOD in 2016 and the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry.The influence mechanism of environmental regulation on manufacturing value climbing is investigated from both theoretical analysis and empirical research.The results show that the environmental regulation has a dynamic impact on the manufacturing value chain climb,which will hinder the manufacturing value chain climb in the short term and significantly encourage the manufacturing value chain climb in the long term.Further panel threshold test shows that only when the intensity of environmental regulations reaches a certain“threshold”can the manufacturing industry value chain be effectively stimulated to climb.In the test of the transmission mechanism of“Porter hypothesis”,environmental regulation can promote technological innovation through weak“Porter hypothesis”and efficiency growth through strong“Porter hypothesis”,thus promoting the climb of the value chain of China’s manufacturing industry.This study not only provides a theoretical basis for promoting the green upgrading of traditional manufacturing industry with environmental policies,but also provides empirical evidence for realizing the high-quality development of trade under the new double-cycle development pattern.