“双碳”目标、财政压力与绿色增长——来自所得税收入分享改革的政策实验

“Double Carbon”Goal,Fiscal Pressure and Green Growth:Policy Experiment from the Income Tax Revenue Sharing Reform

“双碳”目标与财政压力陡增如何兼容并进,是当前中国经济高质量发展亟待解决的问题。本文以央地税收分成作为财政压力切入点,利用强度双重差分模型探究地方财政压力对城市绿色全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,所得税收入分享改革显著促进财政压力地区绿色全要素生产率增长;对于产业结构低端化地区,在稳增长前提下,适度调整环境规制强度虽然能刺激工业与第二产业发展,创造更多的产业结构优化空间与资本来源,但环境规制强度的下降也导致后续绿色增长动力不足;对于产业结构高级化地区,提高自主创新能力才能激发更深层次的绿色变革;西部、东北和转移支付流入地的财政压力地区具有显著绿色全要素生产率增长效应。

How to deal with“Double Carbon”goal compatible with fiscal pressure surge is the current hot problem urgently to be solved in the high-quality development of Chinese economy.Taking the central and local tax sharing as the entry point of fiscal pressure,this paper uses the intensity difference-in-difference model to explore the impact of local fiscal pressure on urban green total factor productivity.The results show that,on the basis of overcoming the endogeneity problem and passing a series of robustness tests,the income tax revenue sharing reform significantly promotes the growth of green total factor productivity in fiscally stressed regions;Mechanism analysis shows that for regions with low-end industrial structure,under the premise of stable growth,moderate adjustment of environmental regulation can stimulate the development of industry and secondary industry,create more space for industrial structure optimization and capital sources,but the decline of environmental regulation also leads to the lack of impetus for subsequent green growth;For the regions with advanced industrial structure,only by improving the ability of independent innovation can stimulate the deeper green changes;the heterogeneity analysis shows that the fiscal pressure regions in the west,northeast and transfer payment inflow areas have significant green total factor productivity growth effects.