基于系统动力学的公共建筑节能减排路径研究

Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Path of Public Buildings Based on System Dynamics

为实现公共建筑碳达峰目标,通过文献分析初步得出公共建筑碳排放增长的主要影响因素,并基于KAYA恒等式在宏观角度综合讨论了经济、能源、人口与外部环境等影响因素之间的相互作用关系。在此基础上利用系统动力学建立公共建筑碳排放系统仿真模型,并借助Venple软件仿真模拟2020-2040年间碳排放数据变化趋势。然后基于公共建筑碳排放仿真模型,得出可实现的能源结构优化、节能技术应用、可再生能源应用等主要的碳减排路径。最后通过调控影响因子参数设置不同的碳排放情景,分析了公共建筑碳排放对各路径的灵敏度,并为碳减排路径的实施优化提出合理建议。

In order to achieve to peak carbon dioxide emission of public buildings,the paper analyzes the main factors which influence the carbon emission growth of public buildings through literature analysis,comprehensively discussing the interaction relationship between economy,energy,population and external environment based on KAYA identical equation from a macro perspective.On the basis,a simulation model of carbon emission system of public buildings is established by adopting system dynamics,and the growth trend of carbon emission from 2020 to 2040 is predicted by utilizing Venple software.Based on the carbon emission simulation model of public buildings,the main carbon emission reduction paths,such as energy structure optimization,energy-saving technology application,renewable energy application,are obtained.Finally,different carbon emission scenarios are set by adjusting the impact factor parameters.Based on the carbon emission simulation data of each scenario,the paper analyzes the sensitivity of the carbon emission of public buildings to the main carbon emission reduction paths and proposes reasonable suggestions for the implementation and optimization of carbon emission reduction path.