生猪价格波动成因分析及对策研究

Analysis on the Causes of Price Fluctuations of Live Pigs and Research on Countermeasures

生猪价格周期性波动造成了“猪贱伤民、猪贵伤农”的现象,对生猪产业链的发展产生了一系列的影响。基于2002—2022年生猪价格的数据,分析了猪周期的特征、影响及产生原因,并提出了相应的应对策略。结果表明:生猪产能周期是其价格周期的先导,利润驱动下的生猪供需不平衡是导致生猪价格波动的直接原因,生猪产能调整的滞后性是导致生猪价格波动的根本原因。此外,中国生猪养殖的分散性、疫情不确定性也会加剧生猪价格波动。基于此,提出通过扶持规模化养殖企业发展,监控能繁母猪产能,构建疫情防控体系,从而缓减猪周期负面影响的系列政策措施,以期促进生猪产业链良性发展。

The cyclical fluctuation in the price of live pigs has caused the phenomenon of“low pig prices affect the interests of enterprises,and high pig prices affect the interests of people”,which has had a series of impacts on the development of the live pig industry chain.Based on the data of live pig prices from^(2)002 to 2022,the characteristics,impacts and causes of the pig cycle were analyzed and corresponding countermeasures were proposed.The results showed that:The production capacity cycle of live pigs is the forerunner of the price cycle,the imbalance between the supply and demand of live pigs driven by profit is the direct cause of the fluctuation of live pig prices,and the lag of the adjustment of live pig production capacity is the root cause of the fluctuation of live pig prices.In addition,the scattered nature of pig farming in China and the uncertainty of the epidemic will also exacerbate the price fluctuation of pigs.Based on this,a series of policy measures were proposed to alleviate the negative impact of the pig cycle by supporting the development of large-scale breeding enterprises,monitoring the production capacity of reproductive sows,and building an epidemic prevention and control system,in order to promote the healthy development of the pig industry chain.