长江干流地区农业包容性绿色增长效率的时空特征及脱钩效应研究

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Decoupling Effect of Agricultural Inclusive Green Growth Efficiency in the Main Stream of the Yangtze River

提升农业包容性绿色增长效率是长江干流地区农业高质量发展的内在需要,也是长江干流地区实现区域经济高质量发展的关键和紧迫任务。在高质量发展理念下,综合考虑主客观因素构建长江干流地区农业包容性绿色增长效率评价指标体系,采用PCA-DEA综合评价模型对长江干流地区农业包容性绿色增长效率进行测度,并探究其时空特征,在此基础上选用Tapio脱钩模型对长江干流地区农业包容性绿色增长效率与经济、环境和社会等多维度成本压力之间的脱钩关系特征进行分析。研究发现:(1)长江干流地区农业包容性绿色增长效率在时序上呈现出逐步改善的趋势,但效率改善幅度存在明显的省域差异性;(2)长江干流地区农业包容性绿色增长效率对要素成本投入、环境成本投入和社会成本投入的依赖程度逐渐趋于弱化,但对不同成本投入的依赖程度存在差异,且依赖度的弱化呈现不稳定性和省域差异性。据此,长江干流各省区市应通过加快农业绿色低碳技术创新、探索先进的农业生产方式、发挥政府对农业的调节作用等,不断降低农业对各成本投入的依赖程度,以推动各省区市协同发展,实现长江干流地区农业包容性绿色增长持续向好。

Improving the efficiency of agricultural inclusive green growth is not only the internal demand of high-quality agricultural development in the main stream of the Yangtze River, but also the key and urgent task of achieving high-quality regional economic development in the main stream of the Yangtze River. Under the concept of high-quality development, the evaluation index system of agricultural inclusive green growth efficiency in the main stream of the Yangtze River is constructed by comprehensively considering subjective and objective factors. The comprehensive evaluation model of PCA-DEA is adopted to measure the agricultural inclusive green growth efficiency in the main stream of the Yangtze River and explore its spatial and temporal characteristics. On this basis, the Tapio decoupling model is selected to analyse the decoupling relationship between agricultural inclusive green growth efficiency and multi-dimensional cost pressures of economics, environment and society. The results show that:(1) the efficiency of agricultural inclusive green growth in the main stream of the Yangtze River shows a trend of gradual improvement in time sequence, but there are obvious provincial differences in efficiency improvement;(2) The dependence of agricultural inclusive green growth efficiency on factor cost input, environmental cost input and social cost input in the main stream of the Yangtze River is gradually weakening, but the dependence on different cost inputs is different, and the weakening of the dependence shows instability and provincial differences. Therefore, all the provinces and cities in the main stream of the Yangtze River should continuously reduce their dependence on various cost inputs by accelerating agricultural green and low-carbon technology innovation, exploring advanced agricultural production methods, and giving play to the government′s regulatory role in agriculture, so as to promote coordinated progress of all the provinces and cities and achieve sustainable and good agricultural inclusive green growth in the main stream of the Yangtze River.