房地产投资对绿色全要素生产率的影响——基于空间杜宾模型的实证研究

Impact of Real Estate Investment on Green Total Factor Productivity——An Empirical Study Based on Spatial Durbin Model

基于超效率SBM-GML指数模型测算中国绿色全要素生产率的地级市数据,运用空间杜宾模型分别从全国及东、中和西部实证分析房地产投资对城市绿色全要素生产率的空间效应。研究结果显示:(1)城市绿色全要素生产率存在空间溢出效应且表现显著,本地区绿色全要素生产率的提升会促进周边地区绿色全要素生产率;(2)在全国层面,房地产投资不仅对城市绿色全要素生产率的直接效应和间接效应都显著为负,而且对绿色全要素生产率分解出的绿色技术效率与绿色技术进步也存在反向抑制;(3)区域角度,房地产投资对绿色全要素生产率的抑制程度存在区域异质性,对东部地区的直接作用最大,西部最小,对中部地区的间接作用最大,西部最小。

In response to climate change,China made a solemn commitment to“achieve peak carbon and carbon neutrality”during the 2021 National People’s Congress.In the government work report in 2021,“achieving peak carbon and carbon neutrality”is listed as one of the key tasks in 2021.“The 14th Five-Year Plan also includes the accelerated promotion of green and low-carbon development.In terms of urban pollution sources,the real estate industry takes up a large proportion,and its rapid development has driven the development of heavy polluting industries such as upstream and downstream chemical industries,manufacturing industries,mining industries,smelting industries,etc.,which consume a large amount of steel,wood,cement and glass,as well as huge amounts of electricity consumption in China.These high energy-consuming industrial enterprises with low innovation have increased their production capacity,hindering the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and green urban development.Although real estate development investment can drive local economic growth,it consumes excessive resources and causes environmental pollution,which also has to attract attention.Under the judgment of In view of the shift of China’s economy to a stage of high-quality development,it is of theoretical significance to study the impact of real estate development investment on high-quality economic development and to promote energy conservation,emission reduction and green transformation of the real estate industry.This study characterizes the level of high-quality economic development through urban green total factor productivity and empirically investigates the impact of real estate investment on GTFP from a national and regional perspective using the spatial Durbin model.This complements the theoretical study of real estate investment and high-quality economic growth,and provides a reference for the sustainable development of China’s real estate industry and economy.The SBM-GML index model was used to measure the green total factor productivity index characterizing urban economic quality development indicators from 2006 to 2018,using 286 cities in China as the research target.First,the impact of real estate investment on GTFP and spatial spillover effects are analyzed empirically at the national level.Then,cities are divided into eastern,central and western cities to study the spatial differences in the impact of real estate investment on GTFP.The results show that:(1)there is a spatial spillover effect of urban GTFP and it is significant,and the increase of GTFP in this region will promote GTFP in the neighboring regions;(2)at the national level,there are significant negative direct and indirect effects of real estate investment on GTFP,as well as negative effects on GTEC and GTTC,which are decomposed from GTFP.(3)from a regional perspective,there is regional heterogeneity in the degree of inhibition of real estate investment on green total factor productivity,with the largest direct effect on the eastern region and the smallest on the western region,and the largest indirect effect on the central region and the smallest on the western region.