基于HLM的农户搬迁意愿影响因素分析

Influencing Factor Analysis of Farmers’Relocation Willingness Based on HLM

农村居民点搬迁是分类推进乡村振兴的关键举措,分析农户搬迁意愿及其影响因素有助于提升决策科学性。已有研究在分析农户搬迁意愿影响因素时多局限于单一尺度,缺乏对不同尺度间的多层次考虑。以湖北省宜城市为例,基于具有农户搬迁意愿的116个村庄调查数据,从村、镇尺度出发,构建多层线性回归模型(HLM)分析农户搬迁意愿影响因素的多层次性,并为农村居民点整治提出政策建议。结果表明,人居设施、产业规模层次是促使农户提高搬迁意愿的两大类因素,包括离散居民点个数、居民点离散距离、粮食生产功能和一产产值比例;利用HLM剥离多层次性混合结果表明,农户搬迁意愿影响因素在村级、镇级尺度上具有层级结构,村级尺度中离散居民点个数、粮食生产功能均呈显著正相关关系,镇级尺度中一产产值比例呈显著正相关关系,居民点离散距离则呈显著负相关关系。促进农村居民点整治,提高农户搬迁意愿,应建立村镇良性互动机制,从居民点分布格局、资源利用程度、产业发展规模等方面进行村庄优化。

The relocation of rural settlements is a key measure to promote rural revitalization,and analyzing the farmers’relocation willingness and the influencing factors can help improve the scientific decision.Existing researches are mostly subject to a single scale to analyze the influencing factors of farmers’relocation willingness,and lack of multi-level relationships between these factors.Taking Yicheng City,Hubei Province for example,we explored the influencing factors of farmers’relocation willingness based on the survey data of 116 villages with farmers’relocation willingness using hierarchical linear model(HLM),and put forward policy recommendations for rural settlements.The results show that residential facilities and industrial scale are two major factors that prompting farmers to increase relocation willingness,including the number of discrete settlements,the distance between settlements,the cereal production and the proportion of primary industry value.We used HLM to strip the multi-level mixed results.The results show that the influencing factors of farmers’relocation willingness have a hierarchical structure at the village and town scales.At the village scale,the number of discrete settlements and the cereal production are significantly positive correlation.The proportion of primary industry value at the town-level scale shows a significant positive correlation,and the distance between settlements shows a significant negative correlation.The policy recommends optimizing the distribution pattern of settlements,the degree of resource utilization and the scale of industrial development,establishing a benign interaction mechanism between villages and towns,increasing farmers’relocation willingness,and promoting the improvement of rural settlements.