基于Sobol方差和代理模型的起重机结构安全评估研究

Research on crane structure safety assessment based on Sobol variance and agent mode

针对起重机的安全性问题和传统的安全评价方法计算效率低下等复杂问题,提出Sobol方差结合代理模型的计算分析方法来研究桥式起重机的结构安全评估。根据桥式起重机的结构特点和2种失效模式的安全评价准则,通过Sobol方差的概念建立量化评价模型,利用克里金代理模型提升计算效率。结果表明:采用克里金代理模型的计算方法可以将结果误差控制0.80%~4.41%,节省90%计算成本;在各种失效阈值下,翼缘板厚度对于结构强度和刚度的失效概率影响是最大的。该方法不仅提高了起重机结构安全评价效率,节省了试验成本,而且弥补了多种设计变量下的起重机结构安全评价的不足。

Aiming at the safety problems of cranes and complex problems such as the low computational efficiency of traditional safety evaluation methods. The calculation and analysis method of Sobol variance combined with surrogate model is proposed to study the structural safety assessment of overhead cranes. According to the structural characteristics of the bridge crane and the safety evaluation criteria of the two failure modes,a quantitative evaluation model is established through the concept of Sobol variance,and the calculation efficiency is improved by using the kriging surrogate model. The results show that the calculation method using the kriging surrogate model can control the result error between 0. 80% and 4. 41%,and save 90% of the calculation cost;under various failure thresholds,the failure probability of flange plate thickness on structural strength and stiffness The impact is the greatest. This method not only improves the efficiency of crane structure safety evaluation and saves the test cost,but also makes up for the deficiency of crane structure safety evaluation under various design variables.