高速公路对边缘地区收入水平的作用研究——来自日本东京湾区的新证据

The effect of expressway improvement on income level of residents in periphery regions: New evidence from expressway construction in Tokyo Bay Area

长期以来,包括高速公路在内的交通基础设施建设被认为是缓解区域发展不平衡不充分的重要措施,但现有研究对高速公路的经济效应仍存在一定分歧,有些学者认为高速公路对促进边缘地区经济发展、缩小区域经济差异具有正向、积极的作用,也有些学者持相反观点,近年来还有部分学者提出高速公路的经济效应存在阶段性差异,如“倒U型”等。在此背景下,本文聚焦城市群的边缘地区,以日本东京湾区为研究对象,重点关注其高速公路建设收尾阶段的经济效应,采用考虑异质性的交错双重差分模型研究2012—2020年高速公路开通对边缘地区人均收入水平的影响,同时使用中介效应模型分析其作用机制。研究表明:①高速公路开通对边缘地区人均收入的动态效应为负。②高速公路开通导致边缘地区人口持续流失,土地价格、制造业及批发业所受影响不显著甚至为负。③根据中介效应模型实证结果,东京湾区当前扩散效应疲软而极化效应强劲,高速公路的开通未能有效提升边缘地区人均收入水平。结合东京湾区近70年的高速公路建设历史以及相关研究,本文认为高速公路建设对边缘地区人均收入水平的作用存在“窗口期”,边缘地区应根据所处城市群实际情况以及自身条件适时调整发展策略。本研究以高速公路完善度较高、建设历史较长的日本东京湾区为例,为高速公路的经济效应提供了新证据,同时也为中国城市群边缘地区的高速公路建设提供重要的决策参考,有助于根据交通基础设施建设的不同阶段因时施策、因地制宜,加快推动实现共同富裕。

For a long time, transportation infrastructure construction has been considered as an important measure to alleviate the imbalance and inadequacy of regional development.However, there are still some different opinions on the economic effects of expressways. Some scholars believe that expressways can promote the economic development of the periphery areas, therefore expressways have good and positive effects on narrowing differences among regional economic development. But, some scholars hold the opposite opinion. In recent years,some scholars proposed that the economic effects generated from constructing expressways may vary from stage to stage, with strong and positive economic effects during the mid-period of expressways construction and weak or even negative economic effects in both the beginning and the end period of construction, similar to an "inverted U-shape". This paper focuses on the economic effects during the late period of expressway construction at the periphery areas of the Tokyo Bay Area, and uses the heterogeneous staggered DID method to study the impact of expressway on the per capita income level from 2012 to 2020, and the mediating effect model is used to analyze its mechanism of impact. The result shows that:(1) The long-term impact of expressway construction on the per capita income of periphery areas is negative;(2) The construction of expressway caused the population loss in the periphery areas. At the same time,the land prices, manufacturing and wholesale industries were not positively affected;(3)According to the results of mediating effects, the diffusion effect is weak but the polarization effect is strong in the Tokyo Bay Area, therefore the construction of expressway does not play the expected role of contributing to common prosperity. Based on the history of expressway construction in the Tokyo Bay Area in the past 70 years and related studies, we believe that there is a "window period" for the effect of expressway construction on the per capita income level in the periphery areas. The periphery areas should timely adjust their development strategies according to the urban agglomeration in which they are located and their own conditions. This study, taking the example of the periphery areas of the Tokyo Bay Area with a long history of expressway construction and relatively sophisticated expressway network,shows new evidence for the economic effects of expressways, which can provide important reference for the periphery areas in China’s urban agglomerations, and accelerate the realization of common prosperity.