中国二氧化碳排放的空间差异及其双维内在结构解析:2000—2019年

Spatial difference of carbon dioxide emissions and its bi-dimensional internal structural decomposition and analysis from 2000 to 2019 in China

中国二氧化碳排放的空间差异对统筹协调各地区“双碳”工作提出了严峻挑战。本文基于CEADs提供的2000—2019年中国省级碳排放清单,运用可视化方法刻画中国二氧化碳排放的时序特征与空间格局,采用人口加权变异系数法对中国二氧化碳排放的空间差异进行双维分解,深入挖掘其内在结构特征。研究发现:样本考察期内,中国二氧化碳排放增速趋缓,内部结构来源变化特征明显,在空间上呈现出“东多西少、北多南少”的分布格局,“东西差距缩小、南北差距明显”的分布趋势,以及向西转移的分布重心。中国二氧化碳排放的空间差异水平呈上升态势,空间不均衡特征日益突显。从区域结构角度看,中国二氧化碳排放的总体空间差异主要来源于区域内差异,中部和西部区域内差异上升是总体空间差异上升的重要原因。从碳源结构角度看,原煤消费碳排放的空间差异是决定总体空间差异程度和变化趋势的主要力量。综合区域和碳源双维结构视角进一步发现,中部和西部原煤消费碳排放的空间差异逐渐成为总体空间差异最为显著的贡献来源。因此,在中国实现“双碳”目标进程中,应立足“以煤为主”基本国情,积极推进天然气开发利用,协同推进化石能源高效利用与清洁能源开发,制定差异化的地区减排政策。

The spatial difference of carbon dioxide emissions in China poses a serious challenge to the coordination of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in different regions.Based on the provincial carbon emission inventory of China from 2000 to 2019 provided by CEADs,this paper used the visualization method to depict the temporal characteristics and spatial pattern of China’s carbon dioxide emissions,and used the population weighted coefficient of variation method to decompose the spatial difference of China’s carbon dioxide emissions,so as to deeply explore their internal structural characteristics.The results show that during the sample period,the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions in China slows down and the internal sources change significantly,showing a spatial distribution characteristic of more in the east and less in the west,more in the north and less in the south.The gap between the east and the west narrows,and the distribution center of carbon dioxide emissions shifts to the west.Carbon dioxide emissions in China shows a significant spatial imbalance,and the spatial difference shows a significant increase during the sample period.From the regional perspective,the overall spatial difference of carbon dioxide emissions in China mainly comes from the intra-regional difference,and the increase of the intra-regional difference in central and western regions is an important reason for the overall spatial difference increase.From the perspective of carbon sources,the spatial difference of carbon emissions from consumption of raw coal is the main force determining the degree and trend of the overall spatial difference of carbon emissions,and the rise of the spatial difference of carbon emissions from consumption of raw coal is an important reason for the rise of the overall spatial difference.From the perspective of two dimensions of region and carbon sources,the spatial difference of carbon emissions from raw coal consumption in central and western China gradually became the most significant contributor to the overall spatial difference.In the process of realizing the carbon peak and carbon neutrality,China must,based on the Chinese context that the energy structure is dominated by coal,actively promote the development and utilization of natural gas,pursue coordinated and stable development,strengthen the efficient utilization of fossil energy and the development of clean energy,and formulate differentiated regional emission reduction policies.