收入分配极化的最新变动与成因

Latest Changes and Causes of Income Polarization in China

本文基于最新数据和新近拓展的相对分布方法,分析1995—2018年我国居民收入极化的变动趋势,侧重研究2013年我国收入分配制度改革政策实施后收入分配极化的最新变动,讨论极化变动的微观成因。结果表明,2013年后我国居民收入极化出现下降趋势,高低收入分位的极化水平都显著下降,说明“提低、扩中、限高”政策有效逆转了收入极化趋势。城镇化和高等教育扩张等禀赋因素降低了下层极化,而教育和就业等市场回报率下降减弱了上层极化。城镇中、低收入人群比重和农村中、高收入人群比重均增加,全国中间收入人群规模扩大,使得我国居民收入纵向极化显著下降。城乡群体分割下降后,使长期存在的城乡极化明显减弱,这是我国收入分配政策转型的重要契机。要进一步关注市场化带来最低10%收入人群的极化,防止财富不合理的过度回报带来最高1%收入人群的上层极化,从而减少收入纵向极化,并助推全体人民共同富裕。

Based on the latest household survey data and the recently extended relative distribution method, this paper studies the long-term evolution of income polarization in China and its reasons from 1995 to 2018. The results show that, China’s income polarization has experienced a decreasing trend since 2013. It demonstrates that, after the new strategy of “support the low-income, expand the middle class,restrict the top income” proposed by the State Council in 2013, the trend of polarization has dramatically reversed, as both of the polarizations in low and high quantiles are decreasing. Among them, endowment factors such as urbanization and the higher education expansion are the sources of the decline in lower polarization, while the decline in market returns of education and occupation are the main reasons for the weakening upper polarization. Further, the proportion of middle-low income in urban areas, as well as the proportion of middle-high income in rural areas have increased, so the expanded middle class significantly reduces the vertical dimension of polarization. Meanwhile, the reduced urban-rural segmentation significantly decreases the long-standing urban-rural income polarization, which creates a transformation opportunity for China’s income distribution strategy. However, it reminds us to be aware of polarization in the lowest 10% income group caused by their declining market returns, to prevent the polarization in the top 1% because of their unreasonable excessive returns from wealth, so as to reduce vertical polarization and promote the target of common prosperity.