结构性货币政策:理论基础与政策效果

Structural Monetary-Policy: Theoretical Foundations and Policy Effects

文章运用DSGE模型对中国结构性货币政策进行分析。结果表明,结构性货币政策能够有效促进新兴产业产出和总产出,但不同政策工具效果并不相同,价格型的再贷款利率政策对于优化经济结构、增进社会福利的效果最好。与传统总量货币政策相比,结构性货币政策对社会福利的改进有限,仍存在着对传统产业的挤出效应、对总量政策的替代效应及对经济结构的扭曲效应等负面作用。文章认为,应充分发挥财政政策在结构调整中的作用,优化结构性货币政策工具体系并积极研究其有序退出,发挥好货币政策的总量调控作用和信贷政策的结构调整功能。这对健全现代货币政策框架、建设现代中央银行制度,具有非常重要的意义。

In the absence of fiscal policy or when the transmission of monetary policy is blocked, monetary policy can play structural functions. The DSGE model shows that structured monetary-policy tool can effectively promote the output of the emerging industries and the aggregate output, but the effects of different policy tools are different. The price instrument, i.e., the loan rate of central-bank loading, has the best effect in improving the economic structure and public welfare. Compared with conventional monetary policy, structured monetary-policy tools have less impact on output and the improvement of social welfare is not significant. Structured monetary-policy tools have some negative effects such as crowding out the traditional industry, substituting the aggregate monetary policy and possibly distorting the economic structure. In the future, we should improve the role of fiscal policy in structure adjustment and optimize the structured monetary policy tools. We should make full use of the aggregate management role of monetary policy as well as the structural adjustment function of credit policy. It is of great significance to build the modern central bank system and the modern monetary policy framework.