产业政策如何发挥作——用来自中国自然实验的证据

How Industrial Policies Work--Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China

产业政策能否有效发挥作用,以及如何有效发挥作用,长期以来一直是学术界和政策界争论的焦点。由于缺乏足够的反事实和自然实验,在实证上一直很难从因果关系上来识别产业政策的效果和具体的影响机制。理论上来说,只要市场是完全的,就不需要政府的干预(如产业政策),因此评价产业政策需要识别市场不完全的具体形式和影响机制。《中国制造2025》涵盖了很多行业,为回答这个问题提供了难得的自然实验。基于这个自然实验,通过事件研究法可以识别产业政策的有效性和影响机制;同时进一步采用双重差分法来探究产业政策对企业实际投资的影响。研究结果表明,从总体来看,产业政策会给扶持行业带来正向影响。在具体机制方面,可从信贷约束、风险分担、市场力量、生产网络协调外部性等角度分析产业政策发挥作用的渠道,发现产业政策对外部融资依赖度高、研发风险高、市场竞争程度高的企业有明显的正面的作用。而在克服生产网络外部性方面的效果与行业竞争程度有关,市场竞争程度高的行业中,上游企业获益更多,而在垄断程度较高的企业中则相反。研究结论为理解产业政策需要针对具体市场失灵、制定更有效的产业政策、实现中国的高质量发展提供了学术依据。

Whether and how industrial policies work have long been an open question in academics and policy arena.Due tolacking counterfactuals and natural experiments,it is notoriously hard to identify the causal effects of industrial policies.A Priori if the markets are complete,there is no need for government interventions.Therefore,to justify industrial policies we need to identify the explicit forms of market incompleteness and the related mechanisms."Made in China 2025"provides an ideal natural experiment to address this big question.The paper exploits this experiment to identify the effects and mechanisms of industrial policies.The results show that,generally,industrial policies produced positive effects on the treated firms.In terms of market completeness,industrial policies are espcilly positive for the industries with more binding credit constraint,more binding risk constraint,or more competition.In terms of production networks,the positive effects are more salient for the downstream industries.In addition,we use Difference-in-Difference model to capture the net effect of industrial policy.We find that"Made in China 2025"not only increased the actualinvestment but also improved the investment efficiency.The paper has important implications for which market failures to target,to make industrial policies work better and to achieve China's high-quality development.