面向新能源功率多时空尺度精确预测的机制创新与平台建设探索

Mechanism Innovation and Platform Construction for Accurate Prediction of New Energy Power at Multiple Temporal and Spatial Scales

构建以“新能源”为主体的新型电力系统迫切需要从全网统筹的角度对新能源功率进行更加精确化的预测和预测结果实用化的应用,以此提高大电网接纳高比例新能源能力、改善电力系统运行安全性与经济性。立足以调度实际需求为导向,以解决问题成效为衡量标准,以“开放、高效、实用”的理念、机制革新实现科技创新,提出一种调度机构视角下新能源多时空尺度精确预测的机制创新探索及创新平台的实施方案。从顶层设计、机制创新思考及创新平台的架构和主要功能等多方面展开探讨,力求依托技术、管理双创新,探索调度机构实施新能源功率预测水平提升的新路径。

To construct a new power system with“new energy”as the main body,it is urgent to make more accurate prediction of new energy power and apply the prediction results to practical application from the perspective of overall power grid planning,so as to ac⁃cept high proportion of new energy for the large power grid and make the power system operate securely and economiclly.Based on the actual demand of power dispatching as the guidance,the effectiveness of problem solving as the measurement standard,and the“open,efficient and practical”concept and mechanism innovation to achieve scientific and technological innovation,this paper proposes an innovation mechanism and implementation plan of the innovation platform for the accurate prediction of new energy power at multiple temporal and spatial scales.The paper discusses the top-level design,the basic idea of innovation mechanism,the architecture design and the main functions of innovation platform,and tries to explore a new path to improve the prediction level of new energy power by relying on technology and management innovation from the perspective of the power dispatchers.