南方电网区域降水季节预测系统的构建及评估

Development and Evaluation of Seasonal Rainfall Prediction System for China Southern Power Grid Region

基于我国自主研发的气候模式,构建了面向南方电网区域的全球-区域双向耦合模式,开展了1991—2020年集合回报试验,研发了适合南方电网区域降水预测的误差订正方法,并构建了适合于南方电网区域的降水季节预测系统。集合回报结果表明:全球-区域双向耦合技术可显著改善模式对南方电网区域降水空间分布及其主导模态的模拟预报能力,误差订正方案可显著提高对南方电网区域夏季降水异常的预测技巧。30年平均空间相关系数和预报技巧评分分别可达0.27和74.31,南方电网区域平均时间相关系数可达0.28。预测系统对典型旱涝年也展现出良好的预测技巧。总体而言,此系统可向南方电网区域提供可靠的季节性降水预测产品,为南方电网的安全运行和调配管理提供技术支持。

Based on the self-dependent climate system model,the global-regional double coupling model system for Southern Power Grid region is developed,and the ensemble hindcast experiments from 1991 to 2020 are conducted.The bias correction method suit⁃able for the rainfall prediction of China Southern Power Grid region is developed and a seasonal rainfall prediction system suitable for the Southern Power Grid region has been established.The results show that the global-regional double coupling technique can improve the modelling and prediction capability of the regional rainfall spatial distribution and dominant modes of summer rainfall in the Southern Power Grid region,and the bias correction scheme can significantly improve the prediction skills of summer rainfall anomalies in the region.The 30-year average pattern correlation coefficient can reach 0.27,with prediction score(PS)skill reaching 74.31,and the regional average temporal correlation coefficient is about 0.28.The system also shows good prediction skills for extreme flood and drought years.In general,the system can generate reliable seasonal rainfall forecast products,and hence provide good technology support for the safe operation and deployment management in China Southern Power Grid.