广州市耕地非粮化时空演变及驱动力分析

Analysis on Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Driving Force of Non-Grain Cultivated Land of Guangzhou City

【目的】耕地非粮化问题给粮食安全带来风险,落实耕地保护措施刻不容缓。广州市作为国内一线城市,耕地非粮化现象普遍。分析广州市耕地非粮化时空演变特征,探究非粮化过程的驱动力,提出防止耕地非粮化的相关建议,可为广州市耕地非粮化的管控提供参考。【方法】运用GIS空间分析法研究广州市耕地非粮化的时空演变过程,运用地理探测器模型研究非粮化的影响因素。【结果】(1)2005—2016年广州市耕地非粮化率由60.46%小幅升高至67.17%,2016—2018年耕地非粮化率由67.17%大幅上升至87.53%,2018—2020年耕地非粮化率由87.53%降低至86.91%,耕地非粮化问题严峻。(2)从区域来看,中心城区耕地非粮化水平普遍高于外围城区。2020年,北部从化区非粮化水平较低,耕地非粮化率为58%,荔湾区、海珠区和天河区非粮化水平最高,耕地非粮化率均为100%。(3)广州市耕地非粮化受多种因素综合影响,影响因子间大多表现出双因子增强关系,少数表现出非线性增强关系。各单因子中城镇化率、人均消费水平、地均GDP平均影响力最高,分别为0.9176、0.7059和0.6674,自然资源禀赋维度的因子影响力相对较小。【结论】广州市整体耕地非粮化水平高,内部经济发展的不平衡深刻影响着耕地非粮化的空间分布格局。应更加重视耕地保护,加强耕地保护制度建设,落实各方责任;要深入完善惠农政策、建立高标准永久基本农田,给予资金和技术支持,助力粮食生产提质增效,提高农民种粮的积极性;要培养专业人才,推动产业融合升级,提高粮食生产的附加收益。从多方面入手防范对耕地的非法侵占,稳定农作物播种面积,防止耕地的非粮化用途,保障粮食增产增收。

【Objective】The problem of non-grain cultivated land brings risks to food security.It is urgent to implement cultivated land protection measures.As a first-tier city in China,Guangzhou has a widespread phenomenon of non-grain cultivated land.The research aims to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of non-grain cultivated land in Guangzhou,explore the driving force of non-grain process,and put forward relevant suggestions to prevent non-grain cultivated land,which can provide references for the control of non-grain cultivated land in Guangzhou.【Method】GIS spatial analysis method was used to study the spatial-temporal evolution process of non-grain cultivated land in Guangzhou,and Geodetector Model was used to study the influencing factors of non-grain cultivated land.【Result】(1)From 2005 to 2016,the non-grain rate of cultivated land in Guangzhou increased slightly from 60.46%to 67.17%.From 2016 to 2018,the non-grain rate of cultivated land increased significantly from 67.17%to 87.53%.From 2018 to 2020,the non-grain rate of cultivated land decreased from 87.53%to 86.91%,indicating that the non-grain problem of cultivated land in Guangzhou is serious.(2)From a regional perspective,the non-grain level of the central urban area was generally higher than that of the peripheral urban area.In 2020,the non-grain levels of the northern Conghua District was low with the non-grain rates of cultivated land 58%.The non-grain level of Liwan District,Haizhu District and Tianhe District were the highest with the non-grain rate of cultivated land 100%.(3)The non-grain cultivated land conversion in Guangzhou is affected by many factors,and most of the influencing factors show a two-factor enhancement relationship,and a few show nonlinear enhancement relationship.Among the single factors,urbanization rate,consumption level and GDP per land are the most important,with an average influence of 0.9176,0.7059 and 0.6674,respectively,while the influence of natural resource endowment dimension is relatively soft.【Conclusion】The overall non-grain level of Guangzhou is high,and the imbalance of internal economic development has a profound impact on the spatial distribution pattern of non-grain level.More attention should be paid to the protection of cultivated land,strengthening the construction of cultivated land protection system and implementing the responsibilities of all parties.Guangzhou should further improve the policies for benefiting farmers,establish high-standard permanent basic farmland,provide financial and technical support,facilitate to improve the quality and efficiency of grain production,and enhance the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain.And it should cultivate professional talents,promote industrial integration and upgrading,and increase the additional income of grain production.Countermeasures should be taken to prevent the illegal occupation of cultivated land from many aspects,in order to stabilize the sown area of crops,prevent the non-grain use of cultivated land,and ensure the increase of grain production and income.