基于探索性空间数据分析和地统计分析的湾区生态安全空间分异及差异化管理——以浙江大湾区为例

Spatial differentiation and differentiated management of ecological security in the Bay Area based on ESDA and GA:A case study of the Zhejiang Greater Bay Area

湾区是世界一流滨海城市的显著标志,生态安全是湾区可持续发展的基本保障。以浙江大湾区为研究区域,基于生态安全评价,采用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)和地统计分析(GA)方法揭示生态安全的空间相关性与异质性。结合大湾区生态安全空间特征、未来土地利用管理和行政单元的空间分布提出生态保护的差异化管理策略,为大湾区经济社会发展及生态安全保障提供理论支撑。结果表明:(1)生态安全呈现出“北低南高”的分布格局,生态安全区占比71.7%,生态系统整体较安全。(2)生态安全莫兰指数Moran′I值达0.878,“热点”区域占比50.65%,空间正相关性显著。结构性变异在生态安全空间分布中占据主导,宁波、绍兴受结构性变异和随机性变异的综合影响,人口密度、产业布局是影响生态安全空间异质性的主要随机因素。(3)城市发展类型分为优先发展区、综合开发区和生态保护区,其中优先发展区和综合开发区是大湾区经济发展重点区域,生态保护区是保障大湾区生态安全的关键区域,未来城市管理者应对生态环境分区管理,落实差异化管控措施。

Bay Area is a prominent symbol of world-class coastal cities, and ecological security is the basic guarantee of sustainable development of the Bay Area. This paper takes the Zhejiang Greater Bay Area as the research object, based on the ecological security evaluation results using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA) and Geostatistical Analysis(GA) to reveal the spatial correlation and heterogeneity of ecological security. Combing with the spatial characteristics of ecological security and the spatial distribution of land use management in the future and administrative units in Bay Area, the paper offers the differentiation strategy of ecological protection for the Zhejiang Greater Bay Area′s economic and social development and ecological security to provide scientific support. The results showed that:(1) the spatial pattern of ecological security was “north-low and south-high”, and the proportion of ecological security area was 71.7%. Overall ecosystem was safe.(2) The Moran′I value of ecological security reached 0.878, and the proportion of hot spot area was 50.65%, indicating the significantly positively spatial correlation. Structural variation dominated the spatial distribution of ecological security. Ningbo and Shaoxing were influenced by structural variation and random variation. Population density and industrial layout were the main random factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of ecological security.(3) The urban development types were divided into optimization development zones, comprehensive development zones and ecological conservation development zones, among which the optimization development zones and comprehensive development zones were the vital areas for the economic development, and ecological conservation development area was the key area to ensure the ecological security of the Zhejiang Greater Bay Area. In the future, governments should adopt and implement the differentiated measures for ecological protection.