西部大开发对碳排放影响的准自然实验研究

Quasi Natural Experimental Study on the Impact of Western Development Strategy on Carbon Emission

基于我国30个省份1994-2018年的面板数据,运用双重差分法评估了西部大开发战略对西部地区碳排放的影响。研究结果表明:西部大开发显著加剧了西部地区碳排放水平,通过平行趋势检验、倾向得分匹配、数据缩尾处理、变换被解释变量指标和动态面板估计等方法进行稳健性检验,实证结果显示,基准回归结果是稳健的,进一步通过中介效应模型检验西部大开发加剧西部地区碳排放的传导机制,发现西部大开发战略通过抑制西部地区能源结构清洁化转型和能源效率提升进而不利于西部地区降低碳排放。为实现“双碳”目标和西部地区高质量发展,应坚持新发展理念,强化开发与保护的政策协调性,进一步提升能源效率和能源结构优化转型,充分发挥西部地区资源能源比较优势和西部大开发“政策红利”,加快推进西部大开发形成新格局。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1994 to 2018,the impact of the western development strategy on carbon emissions in the western region is evaluated by using the double difference method.The results show that the western development strategy has significantly exacerbated the carbon emission level in the western region.The robustness test is carried out through parallel trend test,propensity score matching,data tailing processing,transformation of explained variable indicators and dynamic panel estimation.The empirical results show that the basic regression result is robust,Further,through the intermediary effect model,it is found that the western development strategy is not conducive to reducing carbon emissions in the western region by inhibiting the clean transformation of energy structure and the improvement of energy efficiency in the western region.In order to achieve the“double carbon”goal and the high-quality development of the western region,we should adhere to the new development concept,strengthen the policy coordination of development and protection,and then further improve energy efficiency and the optimization and transformation of energy structure,so as to give full play to the comparative advantages of resources and energy in the western region and the“policy dividend”of the western development strategy,and accelerate the western development strategy to form a new pattern.