黄河流域城市碳排放效率时空分异及其溢出效应研究

Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity of Urban Carbon Emission Efficiency and Spillover Effect in the Yellow River Basin

碳达峰碳中和是推动高质量发展的内在要求,黄河流域城市碳排放效率直接影响黄河流域高质量发展。利用超效率SBM模型测算了2003-2017年黄河流域61个城市的碳排放效率,结合经验正交函数和空间自回归模型,探究碳排放效率值的时空异质性及溢出效应。结果表明:(1)黄河流域范围内城市碳排放效率呈“下游最高,中游次之,上游最低”的格局。(2)空间格局由“中心高,四周低”向“高值区集聚,低值区分散”转变。(3)人均GDP和政府干预与碳排放效率正相关,人均GDP的平方、能源强度和产业结构与碳排放效率负相关。(4)降低化石能源消费比例、加强政府监管、优化产业结构是实现黄河流域高质量发展的有效途径。

Emission peak and carbon neutrality is the internal requirement to promote high-quality development.The carbon emission efficiency of cities in the Yellow River Basin directly affects the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.In this paper,we use the super-efficiency Slack-Based Measure model(super-efficiency SBM model)to measure carbon emission efficiency of 61 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2017and then conduct Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)to analyze its spatial-temporal evolution.Moreover we use the spatial autoregressive model to explore the spatial and temporal heterogeneity and spillover effects.The results showed that:(1)Within the Yellow River basin,urban carbon emission efficiency is the highest in the lower reaches,the second in the middle reaches and the lowest in the upper reaches.(2)The spatial pattern changed from“high in the center and low around”to“concentrated in the high value area and scattered in the low value area”.(3)Per capita GDP and government intervention are positively correlated with carbon emission efficiency,and per capita GDP square energy intensity and industrial structure are negatively correlated with carbon emission efficiency.(4)Reducing the proportion of fossil energy consumption,strengthening government supervision and optimizing industrial structure is an effective way to achieve high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.