人口-产业视角下京津冀水资源环境匹配性分析

Analysis on the Matching Level between Water Resources and the Environment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from the Perspective of Population and Industry

京津冀人口-产业分布不协调加重了区域水资源环境压力,优化京津冀人口、经济发展政策是提高人口-产业与水资源环境匹配度,促进其协同可持续发展的重要手段。运用基尼系数和拉普拉斯决策准则法分析模拟了不同政策情景(激进、稳健、保守)下,人口-产业发展与水资源环境的匹配度及其变动。研究发现:(1)河北省水污染减排有助于提高人口-产业与水资源环境的匹配度。(2)京津地区与河北产业结构差距扩大会降低京津冀水资源开发利用量与地区生产总值的匹配度。(3)综合考虑人口、产业发展与水污染排放时,人口-产业与水资源匹配度最优。研究表明:在制定人口-产业经济发展政策时需充分考虑水资源环境承载力。

The uncoordinated population-industry distribution in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei aggravates the pressure on regional water resources and environment.Optimizing the population and economic development policies in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is an important approach to improve the matching of population-industry and water resources environment,which can also promote synergistic and sustainable development.The Gini coefficient and Laplace decision criterion method were used to analyze and simulate the match between population-industry development and water resources environment and its changes under different policy scenarios(aggressive,robust,and conservative).The research found that(1)Water pollution reduction in Hebei province helps to improve the matching degree between populationindustry and water resources environment.(2)The widening gap between industrial structure of Beijing-Tianjin and Hebei will reduce the matching degree of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei that between water resources utilization and regional GDP.(3)When considering population,industrial development and water pollution emission,the matching degree between population-industry and water resources is optimal.Reflecting that the environmental carrying capacity of water resources needs to be fully considered while formulating population-industry economic development policies.