黄河流域城市群工业增长与碳排放脱钩关系研究

Study on decoupling relationship between industrial growth and carbon dioxide emission in the urban agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin

采用Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI分解法,在城市群尺度开展黄河流域工业增长、能源消费和碳排放耦合关系研究,以探索城市群与工业低碳转型和高质量协同发展。结果表明:呼包鄂榆城市群的工业经济与碳排放近似同步增长约23倍,关中平原和中原城市群则表现出明显的不同步现象;呼包鄂榆城市群的脱钩状态自2014年后由增长连结转为扩张型负脱钩,关中平原城市群脱钩状态自2007年后由增长连结转为弱脱钩,中原城市群始终处于弱脱钩状态;工业规模始终是3个城市群碳脱钩的主要抑制因素,能源强度对关中平原、中原城市群碳脱钩始终起到促进作用,但对呼包鄂榆城市群的影响自2014年后从促进转为抑制作用。建议结合国家2030年前碳达峰行动方案,制定差异化的城市群工业绿色转型与碳减排政策措施,进一步遏制呼包鄂榆城市群“两高项目”盲目发展,加快工业结构升级和节能改造,提高关中平原和中原城市群工业能效和减碳能力。

The research on the coupling relationship between industrial growth,energy consumption and carbon emission in the Yellow River basin on the scale of urban agglomeration is of great significance for exploring the low-carbon transformation and high-quality coordinated development of urban agglomeration and industry.HohhotBaotou-Ordos-Yulin(HBOY),Guanzhong Plain(GZP)and Central Plains(CP)urban agglomerations were selected as the study areas.The Tapio decoupling model and LMDI factor decomposition method were used to study the decoupling relationship between industrial growth and carbon emission as well as the influencing factors.The results showed that:1)The industrial economy and carbon emission of HBOY increased almost synchronously by 23 times,while GZP and CP showed obvious non-synchronization.2)The HBOY moved from the"expansion connection"to the"expansive negative decoupling"since 2014,the GZP moved from the"expansion connection"to the"weak decoupling"since 2007,and the CP had been in a state of weak decoupling.3)Industrial scale had always been the main restraining factor of carbon decoupling in the three urban agglomerations.Energy intensity had always played a role in promoting carbon decoupling in GZP and CP,but the impact in HBOY had changed from a promoting role to a restraining role since 2014.It was suggested that combined with the national action plan for peak carbon emissions by 2030,differentiated industrial green transformation and carbon emission reduction policies of urban agglomerations should be formulated,to further reduce the scale of high emission and high energy consumption industries in HBOY,to upgrade the industrial structure and energy saving transformation,and to improve the industrial energy efficiency and carbon reduction capacity of GZP and CP.