研究生招生风险多主体多要素评价模型研究

Research on Multi-subject and Multi-factor Evaluation Model for Postgraduate Enrollment Risks

研究生招生考试在国家教育考试中占有举足轻重的地位,化解潜在招生风险,平稳推进招生工作,对提高国家教育考试治理体系和治理能力具有重要意义。本研究通过分析招生风险来源及其表现形式,备选招生风险评价指标;利用多元评价理论面向多主体开展多要素数据采集,初建风险评价体系;利用因子分析法筛选出招生计划失调、招生宣传失措、命题考试失密、招生复试失序、招生录取失稳等5个维度对招生风险进行识别;采用层次分析法确定指标权重,从而建立招生风险多主体多要素评价模型。其次,利用模糊综合评价法对高校Z研究生招生进行实证研究,得出该高校方案处于较安全等级,与实际运行情况相符。最后,结合实证结果,分析影响高校研究生招生的风险来源和大小,并结合风险管理理论,给出风险防控对策和提升路径,为招生风险识别和招生事件预防提供理论指导。

The postgraduate enrollment examination plays a pivotal role in the national education examination.It is of great significance to improve the governance system and capability of the national education examination by resolving potential enrollment risks and steadily promoting enrollment.In this paper,the source of postgraduate enrollment risks is analyzed to select evaluation indicators,and the data of multi-subject and multi-factor is collected to establish evaluation system with the multiple evaluation theory,and five dimensions are obtained to identify enrollment risks with the factor analysis method,and the indicator weight is determined to establish a multi-subject and multi-factor evaluation model with the analytic hierarchy process.Secondly,an empirical study on the university Z is conducted to show that the scheme from this university is at a relatively safe level with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,the source and size of the risk factors are analyzed with the empirical results,and the risk prevention and control strategy are derived with the risk management theory,which provides a theoretical guidance of risk identification and accident prevention for postgraduate enrollment.