近20年淮河生态经济带粮食生产效率时空变化与影响因素

Spatio-temporal variation and influencing factors of grain production efficiency in Huaihe Eco-Economic Belt in recent 20 years

提升主产区粮食生产效率是提高粮食产量、保障粮食安全和生态安全的重要途径,也是学者、政府及农户关注的焦点。选择中国典型的粮食主产区淮河生态经济带为研究区域,构建了包括农户直接投入和政府间接投入的指标体系,借助非径向超效率模型测算了2000—2020年研究区28个地级市的粮食生产效率,并利用地理探测器分析了粮食生产效率空间差异的影响因素。结果显示:研究区域平均生产效率值在1.0附近波动,具有较大提升空间;各地之间的生产效率差距较大,但近20年呈现收敛态势;生产效率变化具有多样性,可分成7大类和11个小类;同级生产效率的地区集聚连片分布,且总体空间格局保持相对稳定;生产效率空间差异是多种因素共同作用的结果。年日照时间、人口密度和农业现代化程度是驱动空间差异的基础影响因子,其他因素解释力大小不等且存在年际变化。

To improve grain production efficiency in the main grain production areas is an important way to increase grain output and ensure food & ecology security. Besides, it is the focus of scholars, governmens and farmers. In this paper, the Huaihe Eco-Economic Belt(HHEEB), one of the typical main grain production areas in China, is taken as the study area.The index system for grain production input, including the direct input factors from farmers and the indirect public input factors from the government, is established. the grain production efficiency(q) of 28 DMU(cities) in the HHEEB in recent 20 years was calculated with the non-radial super-SBM, and the influencing factors of spatial differences in q were analyzed by using Geodetector. There are some findings as follows:(1) The mean value of q is around 1.0, which shows that the grain production efficiency can be greatly improved in the future.(2) There is a large gap in production efficiency between different DMU, but a convergence trend is observed in the past 20 years. The changes of production efficiency are diverse, which can be divided into 7 categories and 11 sub-categories.(3) The production efficiency presented the characteristics of agglomeration and contiguous distribution, and the overall spatial pattern of q remains relatively stable.(4) The spatial difference of production efficiency is affected by many factors. Among them, annual sunshine duration, population density and agricultural modernization are the basic influencing factors driving spatial differences, furthermore, the explanatory power of other factors is different and it changes in different years.