摘要
青藏高原内流区湖泊广布,是气候变化的敏感指示器.准确估算青藏高原的湖泊水储量变化对研究湖泊生态系统和水资源变化至关重要.然而青藏高原高寒缺氧、地形条件复杂,限制了该地区对湖泊水储量的长期实地观测.基于重力卫星数据和高分辨率陆面过程模拟,本研究估算了青藏高原内流区18个大型湖泊(大于300 km^(2))2002~2018期间的湖泊水储量变化,并利用机器学习模型预估了未来湖泊水储量的变化.结果表明,18个湖泊的水储量在2002~2018年间以约26.92 mm/a的速度增加;在中等排放情景下(SSP245),青藏高原内流区湖泊未来水储量增加趋势将变缓,到21世纪中叶,湖泊水储量的增长速率将下降到过去20年的40%左右.研究结果有助于更好地理解气候变化对高原湖泊水储量的影响,为气候变化背景下水资源适应性管理提供科学支撑.
Lakes store 20% of surface freshwater resources and are an important link for studying the interactions between the various spheres of the Earth system[1].There are approximately 1400 lakes larger than 1 km^(2) on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),with a total area of approximately 50,000 km^(2),accounting for half of the number and area of lakes in China[2-4].
作者
贾炳浩
王龙欢
谢正辉
Binghao Jia;Longhuan Wang;Zhenghui Xie(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Lab of Virtual Geographic Environment(Nanjing Normal University),Ministry of Education,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China)
基金
supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0206)
the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100300)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42205176)
the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences(2021073)
the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab)
the Open Fund Project of Key Lab of Virtual Geographic Environment(Nanjing Normal University),Ministry of Education(2021VGE04).
