“一带一路”沿线国家间合作网络特征及合作强度影响因素分析--基于合作事件大数据的跟踪研究

Research on the Cooperation Networks among Countries along "The Belt and Road" and In - fluencing Factors of Cooperation Intensity--Tracking Analysisbasedon Big Data of Cooperation Events

基于GDELT合作事件大数据,结合复杂网络分析方法,探索2003—2020年“一带一路”沿线国家间合作关系的网络分布特征,并结合负二项回归模型识别影响合作强度的主要因素。结果表明:“一带一路”沿线国家间合作网络结构以中国和俄罗斯为核心形成双向枢纽网络结构,合作网络的空间组织格局表现为显著的单中心辐射和多中心紧密相结合的区域合作结构;合作强度呈现出逐渐增强态势,国家间网络中心性水平、对外开放程度、经济发展水平、治理水平及地理距离等是影响合作强度的重要因素。

Based on GDELT data from 2003 to 2020,combined with the complex network analysis method,this paper explores the network distribution characteristics of cooperation relationship among countries along"The Belt and Road",and identifies the main factors affecting the cooperation intensity with the negative binomial regression model.The results show that the cooperative network structure takes China and Russia as the core to form a two-way hub network structure,and the spatial organization pattern of the cooperative network is a regional cooperative structure with obvious single-center radiation and multi-centers.East Asia and South Asia are located at the center and edge of the network,Central and Eastern Europe,West Asia and North Africa are closely linked,and Central Asia as a whole has a weak cooperation network.The cooperation intensity is gradually increasing.The differences in network cen-trality,openness,economic development,governance and geographical distance among countries are all important fac-tors that affect the cooperation intensity.