新疆南疆县域人口老龄化趋势预测及时空演变特征

Forecast of Population Ageing Trends and Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics in South Xinjiang Counties

随着人口老龄化进一步加剧,对我国社会经济发展产生了更加深远的影响,老龄化问题已然成为研究的热点问题之一.以南疆地区为例,采用队列要素方法,对其人口老龄化发展趋势进行预测,并选取老年人口系数、TAi、TGi和老年人口密度等指标,利用探索性空间分析等方法,探究了南疆地区人口老龄化时空格局及演变特征.结果表明:2010-2030年,南疆地区人口老龄化程度不断加深,呈现“东深-西浅”分布格局,并由东向西、由较发达地区向欠发达地区扩张;南疆地区人口老龄化进程持续加速;南疆地区老年人口密度不断提升,形成“北高-南低”的分布格局,并由北向南扩张;南疆地区人口老龄化存在较强的空间正相关性,空间集聚性呈现先弱后强的变化趋势;人口老龄化高-高区向东北部集聚,低-低区向西南部集聚,且扩张趋势明显.

With the further intensification of population ageing,which has a more farreaching impact on China's social and economic development,the issue of ageing has become one of the hot issues for research.Taking the South Xinjiang region as an example,the cohort element method was used to forecast its population ageing development trend,and indicators such as elderly population coefficient,TAi,TGi and elderly population density were selected to explore the spatial and temporal patterns and evolutionary characteristics of population ageing in the South Xinjiang region using exploratory spatial analysis and other methods.The results show that from 2010 to 2030,population ageing in South Xinjiang will continue to deepen,showing a distribution pattern of "deep east-shallow west"and expanding from the more developed to the less developed regions from east to west;the process of population ageing in South Xinjiang will continue to accelerate;the density of the elderly population in South Xinjiang will continue to increase,forming"There is a strong positive spatial correlation between population ageing in South Xinjiang,and the spatial agglomeration shows a trend of weakness followed by strength;the high-high area of population ageing clusters in the northeast,while the low-low area clusters in the southwest.The high-high area of population ageing is clustered in the northeast and the low-low area is clustered in the southwest,and the expansion trend is obvious.