农业“两化”对农民收入的影响:熵值-ECM模型分析

The Impact of Agricultural "Two Modernizations"on Farmers'Income:Entropy-ECM Model Analysis

农业现代化与信息化(以下简称“两化”)作为数字乡村振兴战略的重点发展领域,将为传统农业经济发展提供创新发展渠道、对农村居民收入产生重要影响.为了深入分析农业“两化”的发展现状以及对农民收入的影响,以新疆维吾尔自治区为例,构建农业“两化”和农村居民收入的指标体系,选取2000年-2019年的指标值,采用熵值法、协整检验和误差修正模型进行统计分析.由熵值法得出,提高有效灌溉面积能够促进农业现代化发展,全区快递量的增加有利于农业信息化的建设.由协整检验和误差修正模型验证了农业“两化”与农民收入之间存在着长期均衡关系,短期内的波动可通过修正系数进行纠正.在实证结果的基础上,因地制宜地提出全面推动新疆农业“两化”均衡发展和农村居民收入显著提高的政策建议.

As the major development field of rural revitalization strategy,agricultural modernization and informatization will provide an innovative development channels for the development of traditional agricultural economy and have an important impact on rural residents'income.The statistical analysis of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is carried out by constructing the index of measuring the agricultural modernization,informatization and rural residents'income,selecting the index value from 2000 to 2019 and using entropy method,co-integration test and error correction model.It is concluded from the entropy method that improving the effective irrigation area can promote the development of agricultural modernization and the increase of express delivery volume is conducive to the construction of agricultural informatization.The co-integration test and error correction model showed that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between them and the fuctuation in the short term can be corrected by the correction coeficient.Based on the empirical results,this paper puts forward suggestions to promote the development of agricultural modernization and informatization in Xinjiang and to improve the income of rural residents.