基于STIRPAT模型的天津滨海国际机场航空器碳排放峰值预测研究

Study of aircraft carbon emission peak prediction at Tianjin Binhai International Airport based on STIRPAT model

机场航空器碳排放日益受到关注,早日实现碳达峰对行业绿色低碳发展,实现民航业减排目标具有重要意义。通过ICAO飞机起降循环模型核算天津滨海国际机场2000—2021年度航空器碳排放量,根据核算结果分析碳排放历史特征和变化趋势。利用改进KAYA恒等式构建机场航空器碳排放驱动因素模型,采用LMDI方法分析各影响因素的驱动效应。在碳排放核算基础上运用拓展STIRPAT环境影响评估模型和情景分析法预测碳达峰峰值和达峰时间,构建天津机场碳达峰路径。研究结果发现:地区经济水平对航空器碳排放起到明显促进作用,机场运行大型航空器比例上升促进了碳排放,能源强度发挥了一定的减排效果;情景分析中各情景峰值差异较大,情景2最先于2035年实现碳达峰,峰值为343048 t。逐步提高可持续航空燃油使用比例,持续提升机场航空器运行效率助力机场航空器早日碳达峰。

Aircraft carbon emissions at airport are receiving attention increasingly,and the early achievement of carbon peak is of great significance to the green and low-carbon development of the industry and the attainment of emission reduction goal in the civil aviation industry.The aircraft carbon emissions at Tianjin Binhai International Airport from 2000 to 2021 are calculated by the ICAO aircraft taking-off and landing cycle model,and the historical characteristics and changing trend of carbon emissions are analyzed according to the results.The model of driving factors of aircraft carbon emissions at airport is constructed with the improved KAYA constant equation,and the LMDI method is used to analyze the driving effects of factors.The extended STIRPAT environmental impact assessment model and the scenario analysis method are used to predict the peak carbon value and time,and the carbon peak path at Tianjin Airport is constructed.The research results show that the regional economic level plays a significantly promoting role in aircraft carbon emissions,the rising proportion of large aircraft in the airport promotes carbon emissions,and the energy intensity plays a certain role in reducing carbon emissions.In the scenario analysis,the peak value of each scenario is quite different.Scenario 2 will achieve the peak value of 343048t in 2035.It is possible for airport to gradually improve the proportion of sustainable aviation fuel use and continuously enhance the operating efficiency of aircraft to achieve the carbon peak as soon as possible.