广东省海洋生态效率的时空演化特征及响应策略

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Response Strategy of Guangdong Intercity Marine Ecological Efficiency:Based on the Undesired Output SBM Model and the Gravity Model

借鉴德国环境经济账户的做法,构建了海洋生态效率评价指标体系,并基于2005—2020年间11个样本城市的面板数据,采用非期望产出超效率SBM模型,对广东沿海城市海洋生态效率进行了测度。借助Python 3.6软件,运用核密度和重心模型,进一步揭示了广东城际海洋生态效率的时空演化格局。结果表明:2005—2018年间广东省海洋生态效率呈现稳定上升态势,之后两年有轻微下滑;由2005年的0.35上升为2018年的0.73,实现了由低效率向中高效率的跃升,尤其是2017年广州市、深圳市、珠海市、湛江市和茂名市均已迈入高效率区间。结合核密度所做的生态效率时序演化分析表明:2005年期初11个样本城市的海洋生态效率值呈窄峰分布、且峰值高,说明各市海洋生态效率值较平均、城际差异不明显;但2010年、2015年和2020年生态效率值呈宽峰分布,尤其是2015年以后出现双峰,说明生态效率的城际差异逐年增大,呈现两极分化趋势。结合重心模型的研究结果表明,16个统计年份中海洋生态效率的重心有向西南方向移动的迹象,但海洋生态效率的重心依然在珠三角地区,最后形成了珠三角核心地区和粤西地区的两极局面。最后提出了促进海洋产业结构升级、加大海洋科技创新、因地制宜采取差异化治理等响应策略。

The research builds a marine ecological efficiency evaluation index system by drawing on the practice of the German environmental economic account,and adopts the unexpected output super-efficiency SBM model to evaluate the marine ecological efficiency of coastal cities in Guangdong based on the panel data of 11 sample cities from 2005 to 2020.With Python3.6 software,the study deploys the kernel density and center of gravity model to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of Guangdong's intercity marine ecological efficiency.The results show that the marine ecological efficiency of Guangdong province manifests a steady upward trend from 2005 to 2018,and then declined slightly in the next two years;it rose from 0.35 in 2005 to 0.73 in 2018,realizing a jump from low efficiency to medium-high efficiency,especially in 2017.Among which,cities like Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Zhuhai,Zhanjiang and Maoming have all entered the high-efficiency range in 2019.The time-series evolution analysis of ecological efficiency combined with kernel density shows that the marine ecological efficiency of 11 sample cities has a narrow peak distribution and a high peak at the beginning of 2005,indicating that the marine ecological efficiency of each city is relatively average and the inter-city difference is not obvious;but in 2010,2015,and 2020,the ecological efficiency values showed a broad peak distribution,especially after 2015,there were double peaks,indicating that the inter-city differences in ecological efficiency increased year by year,showing a polarization trend.The results combine with the center of gravity model,showing that the center of gravity of marine eco-efficiency has moved to the southwest in the past 15 years,however,the center of gravity of marine eco-efficiency is still in the Pearl River Delta region,and thus formed a bipolar situation in the core area of the Pearl River Delta and the western Guangdong region.Finally,the response strategies are proposed for promoting the upgrading of marine industrial structure,increasing marine science and technology innovation,and adopting differentiated governance strategies according to local conditions.