长三角区域新型城镇化与数字物流全要素生产率互动研究

Research on the Interaction between New Urbanization and the Total Factor Productivity of Digital Logistics in the Yangtze River Delta

基于长三角一市三省的城镇化发展数据测算出2009—2020年新型城镇化指数水平,借助非参数估计方法讨论数字物流全要素生产率指数变动情况,通过计算考察期内的全局莫兰指数分析新型城镇化与数字物流全要素生产率两系统的空间相关性,最后结合耦合协调度模型探究两系统的协同互动关系。结果表明:1)长三角区域新型城镇化发展水平较高,不同省市间存在一定差异且逐渐收敛。2)数字物流全要素生产率不断提高源于数字化技术进步的助推,并存在阶段性波动特征。3)相对而言,数字物流全要素生产率比新型城镇化具有更高的空间相关性,集聚效应明显。4)新型城镇化与数字物流全要素生产率两系统的耦合协同状况较好,一市三省的耦合协同水平在空间上呈现倒锥形且逐年趋于扁平。因此,应充分发挥数字物流在大循环、大市场中的贯穿优势,带动不同地区间经济发展与城镇化建设,在竞合中实现高质量发展。

Based on the urbanization development data of the city and three provinces in the Yangtze River Delta,the new urbanization index level from 2009 to 2020 is calculated.With the help of nonparametric estimation method,the change of digital logistics total factor productivity index is discussed.The spatial correlation between new urbanization and digital logistics system is analyzed by calculating the Global Moran′s index during the investigation period.Finally,combined with the coupling coordination degree model,the collaborative interaction between the two systems is explored.The results are as follows:1)The development level of new urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta is relatively high,and there are some differences among different areas,which gradually converge.2)The continuous improvement of digital logistics total factor productivity with the characteristics of periodic fluctuation comes from the boost of technological progress.3)Relatively speaking,the total factor productivity of digital logistics has higher spatial correlation and obvious agglomeration effect than the new urbanization.4)The coupling and coordination of the two systems of new urbanization and the total factor productivity of digital logistics is good.The coupling and coordination level of one city and three provinces presents an inverted cone in space and tends to be flat year by year.Therefore,it is time to give full play to the penetration advantages of digital logistics in large circulation and large market in order to drive the economic development and urbanization construction among different regions,and realize high-quality development in competitions and cooperation.