碳减排压力能驱动我国经济高质量发展吗?——来自中国2010–2019年省域面板数据的证据

Can Carbon Reduction Pressure Drive High-quality Economic Development? Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data from 2010 to 2019

当前我国经济发展过程中面临着巨大的碳减排压力,那么这种压力能否驱动我国经济高质量发展值得探究.本文基于2010–2019年中国30个省域面板数据,采用碳排放强度表征政府面临的碳减排压力,基于新发展理念五大维度测度各省域经济高质量发展水平,运用时间固定效应的空间杜宾模型实证分析了碳减排压力驱动经济高质量发展的影响机制,并检验了环保投资在两者间的中介效应.结果表明,邻接地区的碳排放强度和经济高质量发展水平存在空间溢出效应;碳排放强度对经济高质量发展存在“倒U型”的非线性影响,整体上表现从促进经济发展质量提高向抑制经济高质量发展的转变趋势.中介效应回归结果表明,环保投资在碳减排压力驱动经济高质量发展的过程中存在中介效应,即碳减排压力可以通过激励环保投资推动经济高质量发展.

Nowadays, China’s economic development is facing huge pressure on carbon emission reduction. It is of great significance for exploring whether such pressure can drive the high-quality development of China’s economy. The carbon emission intensity is used to characterize the carbon reduction pressure faced by the government,and the high-quality economic development level of each province is calculated under the five dimensions of the new development concept. Based on the panel data of 30provinces in China from 2010 to 2019, the spatial Durbin model with time fixed effect is applied to empirically analyze the influence mechanism of carbon reduction pressure driving high-quality economic development. The intermediary effect of environmental protection investment between the two is tested. The results show that there are spatial spillover effects on carbon emission intensity and high-quality economic development in neighboring areas, and there is an inverted U-shaped nonlinear effect of carbon emission intensity on high-quality economic development. As a whole,it shows the trend of changing from promoting the improvement of the quality of economic development to restraining the development of high-quality economy. The regression results of intermediary effect show that environmental protection investment has an intermediary effect in the process of high-quality economic development driven by carbon emission reduction pressure, that is, carbon emission reduction pressure can promote high-quality economic development by encouraging environmental protection investment.