2023年的平安祈愿——风险文化认知下的城市综合减灾策略

A Peace Prayer in 2023——A Comprehensive Urban Disaster Reduction Strategy Influenced by Risk Culture

文章依据党的二十大提出要建设大安全观理念下的中国式现代化的要求,从省思2019年末至2022年末三年全球疫情风险入手,研究了人类灾害学视角下的可接受风险理论。扼要的分析可知,过去三年虽人类被新冠肺炎疫情所笼罩,但正确的灾难风险评估指出,无论是2023年还是未来,确有不那么悲观的理由,可前提是人类不仅敬畏大自然且遵循自然规律,更要正视越来越严重的因人为失误所致的灾害灾难风险(含感染的病毒及过往的疫情)我们确了解的太少了。文章特别从灾害文化视角强调,城市管理者、建筑师、工程师乃至公众,要懂得当新风险到来,最可怕的不仅不能迷失在冗杂的错误信息中,更要在正确的风险认知中,强化防灾减灾技术的见识与记忆,用作品和理性明辨是非曲折,有序地提出城市综合减灾的规划与设计智库策略。

Following the requirements of the Chinese path to modernization under the view of macro-safety set by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),the thesis conducts a reflection on the risk of the global epidemic over the past three years from the end of 2019 to the end of 2022,and studies the acceptable risk theory from the perspective of human disasters.A brief analysis shows that although the world has been greatly impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic in the past three years,the correct disaster risk assessment points out that there are reasons for optimism for 2023 and the future under the premise that human beings not only respect nature and follow the laws of nature,but also become aware of our ignorance of the increasingly serious risks caused by man-made disasters(including infectious viruses and previous epidemics).The thesis stresses particularly,from the perspective of disaster culture,that urban managers,architects,engineers and even the public should understand that in face of new risks,we should not be lost in the miscellaneous wrong information,but strengthen the knowledge and memory of disaster reduction and mitigation skills under the correct risk perception,and use works to distinguish right from wrong rationally,and put forward the planning and design think tank strategy of comprehensive urban disaster reduction in an orderly manner.