“一带一路”沿线西部省(区)旅游经济发展效率时空特征及其影响因素研究

Study on Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Tourism Economic Development Efficiency in Western Provinces along the "Belt and Road"

本文以“一带一路”沿线的西部9个省(区)为研究对象,采取DEA-BCC模型对9省(区)2012—2021年旅游经济效率进行水平测度,综合分析了沿线省(区)旅游经济效率时空演变特征,并采用面板回归模型对旅游经济效率的影响因素进行了实证检验。结果表明:第一,2011—2020年“一带一路”沿线西部总体、西北和西南旅游经济技术效率、规模效率和综合效率整体呈现“W”型波动增长发展态势;第二,从旅游经济技术效率、规模效率和综合效率发展趋势来看,均表现为西南地区>西部总体>西北地区的特征;第三,从省(区)技术效率、规模效率、综合效率的时序变化呈现出区域迥异的特征,表现为下降态势、平稳波动态势和剧烈波动态势;第四,9省(区)旅游经济效率空间差异显著,综合效率水平较低;第五,金融发展水平和经济发展水平对旅游经济综合效率具有显著负向影响。产业结构、旅游财政支出和人口密度对旅游经济综合效率具有显著促进作用,旅游财政支出的促进作用最大。

This paper takes nine provinces along the Belt and Road as the research object,adopts DEA-BCC model to measure the level of tourism economic efficiency in nine provinces from 2012 to 2021,comprehensively analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of tourism economic efficiency in provinces along the Belt and Road,and empirically tests the influencing factors of tourism economic efficiency by using panel regression model.The results show that:(1) The overall economic and technical efficiency,scale efficiency and comprehensive efficiency of tourism in the western,northwest and southwest regions along the Belt and Road from 2011 to 2020 show a "w-shaped" fluctuation growth trend.(2) From the perspective of the development trend of tourism economic and technical efficiency,scale efficiency and comprehensive efficiency,they all show the characteristics of southwest regions western regions northwest regions.(3) The temporal changes of provincial technical efficiency,scale efficiency and comprehens ive efficiency exhibit different regional characteristics,showing a downward trend,stable fuctua tion trend and sharp fluctuation trend.(4) The spatial difference of tourism economic efficiency in the nine provinces is significant,and the comprehensive efficiency level is low.(5) The level of financial development and economic development has a significant negative impact on the comprehensive erficiency of tourism economy;Industrial structure,tourism fiscal expenditure and population density have significant promoting effect on the comprehensive efficiency of tourism economy,among which tourism fiscal expenditure plays the largest role.