“低端锁定”还是“协同发展”?——关于我国与“一带一路”沿线国家产品结构升级的考察

Low-End Lock or Synergetic Development?Exposure to China Trade Shock and Product Structure Upgrade of Belt and Road Economies

“一带一路”倡议自提出以来受到国际社会的广泛关注。在双边经贸领域,我国与“一带一路”沿线国家在贸易规模不断扩大的同时,是否促进了沿线国家的产品结构升级,事关“一带一路”沿线国家持续响应战略合作及能否深度推进双边经贸关系。本文利用1998—2018年的双边贸易数据,基于国际生产分工协同发展的视角和合成工具变量方法,实证检验我国产品结构升级对“一带一路”沿线国家的影响。本文研究表明,在国际生产分工格局的结构升级方面,我国与“一带一路”沿线国家并不存在消极的“低端锁定”,而是产生了助推“一带一路”沿线国家产品结构升级的“协同发展”作用,具有较强的需求互补效应和供应链效应。本文研究对于优化“一带一路”倡议对外传播和深度推进“一带一路”倡议的实施具有重要的启示,也是对所谓“中国出口冲击”相关研究的回应。

Since the"One Belt and One Road"initiative was put forward,it has received extensive attention from the international community.In the field of bilateral economy and trade,when trade scale between China and"One Belt and One Road"countries keeps increasing,whether bilateral trade promote those countries’product structure upgrade matters.Using bilateral trade data from 1998 to 2018,we empirically analyze the impact of the upgrade of China's product structure on the"One Belt and One Road"countries,based on the perspective of synergetic development of international production division and composite instrument variable method.This paper shows that in terms of structural upgrade of the international division of production,there is no negative low-end lock between China and"One Belt and One Road"countries,but a synergetic development effect which promotes the upgrade of their product structure by strong demand complementary effects and supply chain effects.The results not only enlighten us to optimize the external communication of the"One Belt and One Road"initiative and to promote the"One Belt and One Road"initiative deeply,but also respond to the so called"China Export Shock".