城市综合管廊运行安全风险评价及对策研究

Research on Operation Safety Risk Assessment and Countermeasures of Urban Utility Tunnel

为有效预控城市综合管廊运行安全风险,运用群体评价中的序关系分析法和改进物元可拓模型对城市综合管廊运行安全风险评价进行研究。首先,通过文献研究和实地调研,依据人、机、环、管分类标准构建综合管廊运行安全风险评价指标体系;其次,考虑专家对于评价问题的掌握程度,运用序关系分析法和群决策理论计算专家权重和指标权重;然后,考虑非对称贴近度比最大隶属度更有助于提高风险信息表达的完备性,在物元可拓模型中引入非对称贴近度计算城市综合管廊运行安全风险等级;最后,以实际综合管廊项目为例验证所建模型的可行性,并与传统物元可拓模型的风险评价结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:物元可拓模型中运用非对称贴近度相比传统的最大隶属度原则,有助于提高风险信息的完备性,进而提高综合管廊运行安全风险评价结果的准确性,为决策者更好的预控风险提供理论依据。

In order to feltively pre-control the risk of operation safety of the utility tunnel,the rank crrelation analysis method in group evaluation and matter-element extension model were used to study the operation safety risk evaluaion of the utility tunmel.First of all,through literature research and field investigation,a comprehensive operation safety risk evaluation index system for utility tunnel was constructed according to the lasifcation standard of“human,machine,enviroumental and management”.Seondly,comsidering the expert's mastery of the evaluation problem,the rank relation analysis method and group decision theory ane used to calculate the expert weight and index weight;then,considering that the asymmetric closeness degree is more helpful to improve the completeness of risk information expression than the maximwm membership degree,the asymmetrie closeness degree is introduced into the matter-element extension model to calculate the safety risk level of the operation of the utility tunnel;fnally,the feasibility of the model is verifed by an example of an utility tunnel project,and the risk assessment results are compared with those of the traditional matter-element extension model.The resarch results show that compared with the tradional maximum membership degree,the asymmetric closeness degree in the matter-element extension model is helpful to improve the completeness of risk information,and then improve the accuracy of operation safety risk evaluation results,so as to provide a theoretical basis for decision-makers to better pre-control the risk.